Brisbane travel to Perth looking for their sixth straight win, as West Coast begin the post Adam Simpson era. Can the Eagles cause a major upset? Or will the Lions continue their red hot form?
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2024 AFL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
West Coast vs Brisbane
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, 14th July, Optus Stadium
It’s been a big week for the Eagles with Adam Simpson being sacked during the week, with the club uncertain on whether he would coach or not this weekend. Jarrad Schofield has been given the role as interim coach for the remainder of the season, and his first task is an incredibly tough one.
Brisbane have won five straight games to storm back into the top eight after a difficult start to the season. Lachie Neale led the way for the Lions once again, recording 36 disposals and 3 goals in the 11 point win over Adelaide. Neale was well supported by Josh Dunkley (35 disposals, 1 goal) as Brisbane held off a fast finishing Crows side.
West Coast were battered in all facets by Melbourne last week, recording -76 disposals, -49 marks, -25 contested possessions and despite the Demons dominating possession, they still recorded more tackles than the Eagles.
Brisbane’s turnaround in form has come largely in the improved functioning of their forward line. Between Opening Round and Round 8, the Lions averaged 74.5 points per game, kicking over 100 points only once. Since Round 9, Brisbane have averaged 112.8 points per game, kicking over 100 points in four of those eight games.
West Coast don’t have the firepower to match it with the Lions, so if they don’t contain the stoppages this game could get ugly. Brisbane rank third in the AFL for clearances and rank fourth for scores from stoppages.
Brisbane’s clearance work has led them to being the number one side in the competition for inside 50’s, which will cause a struggling West Coast defence a mountain of issues if the Lions get consistent supply inside forward 50.
Match Prediction: Although teams tend to perform well after a coach is sacked, the gap between these two sides is far too big for that to occur in this match. Brisbane have won five straight games against West Coast by an average margin of 53 points, with the last two meetings decided by 81 and 75 points.
Brisbane are the third highest scoring team in the competition averaging 93.6 points per game, while West Coast are the second lowest scoring team with 67.3 points per game in 2024. The Eagles have also conceded 99.9 points per game this year, the third most of any team in the league. The line of only 30.5 is absolutely shocking in this fixture, the Lions will blow that out of the water.
Brisbane -30.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Lachie Neale 30+ Disposals: The Brisbane co-captain has been one of the hottest players in the competition, recording 36, 29 and 37 disposals in his last three games. Neale has torched the Eagles since moving to Brisbane, averaging 30 disposals per game against West Coast since 2019.
Josh Dunkley 25+ Disposals: Josh Dunkley has followed his skipper’s lead over the last three weeks, recording over 30 disposals in three consecutive games. Dunkley will have a significant size advantage over the Eagles midfield, and will be finding plenty of the football on Sunday.
Harley Reid 15+ Disposals: The number one draft pick has been a good choice in the 15+ disposal market, with Reid reaching 15 disposals in 10 of his 13 games in 2024. Reid has recorded 21, 20 and 21 disposals in his last three games at Optus Stadium.
SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet
