The second NRL game of the annual Optus Stadium double header will see the North Queensland Cowboys make their first trip west, as they take on the Rabbitohs in Perth. With both teams coming off impressive wins last Friday night, there is plenty of optimism going around both camps heading into this round 6 clash. A big game ahead then, let’s dive in and preview our bets for the clash.
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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys
Location: Optus Stadium – Perth
Date: Saturday, 12th April
Time: 5:30pm AET
Odds: Rabbitohs ($2.10) vs Cowboys ($1.75)
Line: Cowboys -1.5
Points: 49.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs managed to win their second straight last weekend against their biggest rivals, the Sydney Roosters. It was an impressive win for the Bunnies, given they lost both halves before the 42nd minute, and winger Mikaele Ravalawa with over 30 minutes remaining. The stats showed it should have been a straightforward win for the Roosters, but the Bunnies have far more grit and determination this season under Wayne Bennett, and look set to push towards the top 8.
The Cowboys also managed their second straight win last week, getting by the Panthers at CommBank Stadium, 22-18. Scott Drinkwater has started to look a lot better than the first few weeks, whilst Tom Dearden and Jake Clifford are gelling well together in the halves. They can’t rest on their laurels if they want to keep pushing towards a finals berth, as they still sit in 14th place with a horrible -50 points differential.
These teams have only met the once each year over the past four seasons, with last year’s matchup being played at Suncorp Stadium during Magic Round. The Cowboys closed 8.5-point favourites at the neutral site venue, with the total closing 51.5. The Cowboys managed to win a back-and-forth battle 28-22, with Braidon Burns having one of his best career games, scoring two tries and running for 183 metres for the Cowboys.
These teams have both met the Panthers over the past two rounds, given us a good indication of where the market views these teams. The issue is, the market has quickly been downgrading the Panthers (though not quickly enough), meaning it’s not entirely accurate to just compare these two games. In round 3, the Rabbitohs closed 9.5-point underdogs at home to the Panthers. The following week, the Cowboys closed a similar number last week on the road. This would indicate the Cowboys are rated around a 3–4-point better team than the Rabbitohs at a neutral site. However, when factoring in the return of Latrell Mitchell, then these teams rate about even.
Which brings us to this week, where the teams meet on a neutral field in Perth. The Rabbitohs were 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before the Cowboys re-opened 1.5-point favourites after last weekend’s games. This is clearly in response to the loss of both Rabbitohs’ halves this week. With the Cowboys still listed as 1.5-point favourites, and my fair sitting around the same, I won’t be betting the spread.
As for the total, it opened 51.5 and has been bet down to 49.5. I make a fair total 44.5, so love the under here. Whilst the Cowboys defence doesn’t look great over the opening five round on average (28.4), the average is hurt by the opening two rounds where they conceded 39 points per game. They have been far more stout in defence over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bunnies defence has been much improved, and I like this game to stay below the total.
Total points Under 49.5
1.91 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Cowboys ML – Whilst this could go either way, I believe the disruption in the halves for the Rabbitohs is enough to get the Cowboys home.
Leg 2: L Mitchell (1+ try) – Latrell almost scored on his return last week and playing at 6 this week he should get his hands on the ball more than usual. Hard to stop from close.
Leg 3: M Taulagi (1+ try) – The Rabbitohs have conceded almost 50% of their tries on their right edge. With four tries in five games, Taulagi is in form and should score here.
SGM Odds: $6.75 at BoomBet
