The Storm will look to keep their momentum going, after a massive win last weekend at Brookvale, as they take on the Warriors at home on Sunday afternoon. The Warriors are fresh off the bye, but have struggled mightily against the Storm of late, losing their past 16 games against the Storm. It doesn’t get much harder than AAMI Park on a Sunday, let’s hope for a good fight and an entertaining game.
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Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors
Location: AAMI Park – Melbourne
Date: Sunday, 13th March
Time: 2:00pm AET
Odds: Storm ($1.15) vs Warriors ($5.60)
Line: Storm -16.5
Points: 52.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Storm come into this clash in tremendous form, having destroyed the Sea Eagles last week on the road, winning 48-24. The Storm led 48-12 with just 12 minutes left, so the score flatters the Sea Eagles in a way. Jahrome Hughes was huge on return, setting up two tries whilst being involved in several others, whilst Cam Munster also had his hands in several tries. The Storm are easily the best team in the competition 1-17 and have proved they will be hard to beat.
The Warriors have turned their round 1 loss to the Raiders around nicely, having won three in a row heading into the bye to currently occupy 4th spot on the ladder. It’s a tough fortnight ahead though, as they take on the two competition favourites in the Storm and Broncos. These two weeks could be a great indication as to where this team is come September football.
The Storm and Warriors met twice last year, the first of which was in round 2 at AAMI Park. The Storm closed 6.5-point home favourites, with a total of 38.5. The Warriors were well and truly in the game, leading 26-18 with just three minutes remaining. But the Storm refused to give up, scoring two converted tries in 3 minutes to get the win, 30-26.
They met again in round 15 in Auckland, with the Storm this time closing 2.5-point road underdogs, with a closing total of 47.5. The Storm dominated the period between the 20th and 60th minutes, scoring six tries to one, to easily account for the Warriors 38-24. Of note, the Storm were without Munster in both games, and Papenhuyzen in the round 15 matchup.
This week, the Storm opened 13.5-point home favourites on the look ahead, before re-opening 14.5-point favourites on Monday. Money for the Storm has continued coming in, as they now sit as 16.5-point favourites. I make this closer to 14, so I do see slight value in the Warriors here, but do I dare fade the Storm?
The total opened 49.5 and has been bet up all week to its current total of 52.5. My numbers suggest unders, however these teams always seem to put on points against one another. I’ll steer clear for now.
This one is a tough one. The Warriors looked far better in rounds two to four, and probably don’t deserve to be 17.5-point underdogs. But the Storm looked irresistible last weekend. I will take the Warriors to cover, but it’s a small outlay for this one.
Warriors +17.5 $1.90 (1 Unit)
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Leg 1: R Papenhuyzen (1+ try) – Papenhuyzen can’t be stopped right now, scoring five tries in four games. Expect another here for the flying mullet.
Leg 2: A Pompey (1+ try) – Pompey scored last time these teams met, and if anyone is going to score on these Storm, it will be someone on the edge.
Leg 3: X Coates (1+ try) – Coates scored a try in both games last season against the Warriors, and after missing out last week despite all the tries to the Storm, expect Cobbo back on the scoreboard.
SGM Odds: $5.00 at BoomBet
