The second game of Saturday football sees the winless Carlton and West Coast looking to get on the board for the first time in 2025. It’s been a horror start to the season for the Blues and the Eagles, so expect both sides to be playing some desperate football at the Adelaide Oval!
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Carlton vs West Coast
Location: Adelaide Oval – Adelaide
Date: Saturday, 12th April
Time: 1:20pm AEST
Odds: Carlton ($1.12) vs West Coast ($6.50)
Line: Carlton -40.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Prediction
Another week, another loss, another second half fadeout. The script remains consistent for Carlton in their 0-4 start, with arch rivals Collingwood running over the top of a lifeless Blues outfit. After leading at half time, Carlton conceded four goals to none in the third quarter, and only managed 2 goals for the second half, which were both kicked after the result was decided.
The Blues have conceded 29.20 in second halves this season, whilst only scoring 10.24 in what is a damning reflection on their inability to string together four quarters of football.
Both sides have swung the axe at selection, with both clubs making four changes. Harry McKay’s return from a three-game absence with personal issues headlines Carlton’s inclusions, in what is a massive boost for the Blues. Andrew McQualter has made a big statement after West Coast’s 81 point loss against GWS, dropping Tim Kelly, Tom Cole and Tyler Brockman.
The ease in which GWS picked apart West Coast was alarming, with the Eagles uncompetitive across the four quarters. West Coast were -119 for disposals, -118 in uncontested possessions, -53 for marks and allowed GWS to take a whopping 28 marks inside 50. Despite the possession dominance GWS had, the Eagles still had 14 less tackles than the Giants.
Carlton’s polish has been a massive issue for them across the opening month this season. Carlton ranks 1st for contested possessions, 1st for loose ball gets and 2nd for ground ball gets, but they rank 18th for disposal efficiency and 18th for goals per inside 50. They don’t have any trouble getting the footy, but they haven’t been able to use the ball with any quality.
Given they are coming up against a West Coast side that has shown no ability to put any pressure on the ball this season, the Blues have a golden opportunity to turn around their inefficiency. The Eagles rank 16th in the competition for tackles, which is alarming given they have lost the disposal account by over 40 disposals in each of their four games this season.
Around the contest Carlton should be able to bully the Eagles who rank 18th for disposals, 17th for contested possessions and 17th for clearances. The Blues forwards will get plenty of looks, and should function better with Harry McKay in the side. West Coast have allowed 48.4% and 45.9% of opposing inside 50’s to turn into scores over their last two games, which should give plenty of confidence in a turnaround for Carlton’s forward line.
Carlton have won four straight games against West Coast, and all four victories have come in convincing fashion. 65, 71, 108 and 63 points have been the margins across those four victories, and given what the Eagles have shown over the last four weeks, it’s difficult to see them being competitive in this match. West Coast have an average losing margin of 56 points this season, so Carlton shouldn’t have any issues in picking up their first win of the season.
Carlton -40.5
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
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Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals: The Carlton captain has absolutely dominated the Eagles in recent times, with returns of 35 and 33 disposals in his last two games against West Coast. Expect a bounce back game from Cripps after being well held against Collingwood.
Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals: Despite not being at his damaging best Sam Walsh hasn’t had any issues finding the footy with 25 or more touches in three of his four games this season, including a team high 31 disposals last week.
Charlie Curnow 3+ Goals: Curnow has obliterated the Eagles across the last three years, with hauls of 10, 9 and 8 in his last three games against West Coast. After a quiet start to the season, this is the perfect opportunity for a big game for the two-time Coleman Medallist.
Total Points Over 176.5: The last three games between West Coast and Carlton have had an average score of 179.5 points, with the Blues kicking some massive scores. Given the pressure Carlton have been under they will be desperate to kick a big score, while the Eagles four games this season have seen an average total points of 178 per game.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at BoomBet
