Thursday Night NRL action heads to Brisbane this week with two teams desperately searching for their second win of the season. Most would’ve thought the Dolphins would be in this situation, but their confidence is elevated. The Panthers have surprised most and not for a good reason. With pressure high, the rugby league action is expected to be exhilarating. Don’t forget to head to our NRL tips page for more previews, analysis and betting tips for every NRL match of every round!
The Dolphins vs Penrith Panthers
Location: Suncorp Stadium
Date: 10th April
Time: 7:50pm (AEST)
Odds: Dolphins ($2.90) vs Panthers ($1.42)
Line: Dolphins +7.5
Points: 48.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Dolphins captured their first win of the season and made a statement in doing so. They produced a perfect first half performance to establish the win, jumping to a 16-nil lead with some disciplined play. It has been a long time coming and is no doubt they can be better. They controlled possession (55%) and completed at 76%, while dominating metres made (9.2m per carry). Most importantly, their defence was remarkably improved, missing just 25 tackles and allowing just 2 line breaks.
The Panthers woes continued, this time upset by the Cowboys. They too had a strong first half, carrying an 18-12 lead into the break. That’s where their try scoring stopped though, with their defence again vulnerable. Any team will find it challenging to win with just a 68% completion rate and missing 41 tackles. They are a vastly different team to what has taken the field over the past 5 years, and they are going to be challenged to transform their form.
The Panthers are boosted by the return of Edwards at fullback; they have missed his defensive organisational skills, which are highly underrated. His return is balanced out by the loss of Kenny and Cole. Still, they should be too strong. To see them lose 5-games in a row would be highly unlikely. As good as the Dolphins were last week, they still have a long way to go to develop into a consistent team. If they can take steps towards that here, it will go a long way to improving their game. They are still averaging just 18ppg in attack (vs Panthers 24ppg). The visitors will need to drastically improve their defensive defence though; they concede an average of 28ppg compared with the Dolphins 20ppg. The fact that the Panthers have looked fragile on defence does allow doubt to grow; another loss would certainly send their season spiralling.
This is a game which the visitors should win and win well. It is time for them to break out of their form slump and make a statement. The Dolphins, while positive recently, still have a long way to go before they are consistently competitive each week.
Panthers -7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Over 48.5 points – the defensive averages of each team this season suggests that this margin will be broken. Expect another high scoring performance from both sides.
Leg 2: Alamoti to score – he is the Panthers’ leading try scorer this season and has a knack of finding the line with the ball in his hands. Expect him to benefit from Edwards’ return, attracting more defenders and freeing him up further.
Leg 3: Leota to score – no, you’re not seeing things. The dynamic prop has scored in both previous fixtures between these two sides. He adds value and allows you to keep your stake lower with this option.
SGM Odds: $15 at BoomBet
