We finish NRL Round 6 with a fascinating matchup between the Newcastle Knights and the Wests Tigers in Newcastle. These teams met just five weeks ago in round 1, where the Knights snuck home 10-8 in a game very much of two halves. This is a huge game in the context of the bottom half of the top 8, even this early in the season, and I can’t wait to watch. Let’s dive in and preview this one.
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Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
Location: McDonald Jones Stadium – Newcastle
Date: Sunday, 13th April
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Odds: Knights ($1.65) vs Tigers ($2.25)
Line: Knights -2.5
Points: 44.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Knights are coming into this game off a demoralising 20-0 loss to the Bulldogs last week in Sydney. It was the third time in their four games this season where the Knights haven’t managed to score more than 10 points and highlighted the teams’ lack of attack. Not only was their attack non-existent, but their discipline was horrible, missing 37 tackles, making 15 errors, conceding 8 penalties (3 on report) and losing one to the sinbin. Need a bounce back here.
Speaking of disappointing, the Tigers came away from round 5 with their tails between their legs, after dominating the Broncos for the opening 39 minutes, and still losing 46-24. It looked more like the 2024 Tigers than we have seen all year, and they need to rectify that immediately. They get a terrific chance to do so against a Knights’ attack that is possibly the worst in the NRL right now.
When these teams met back in round 1 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, the Knights went off as 3.5-point favourites on the road. The spread seemed a good one, considering the score never swayed more than 12 points from the spread. The total closed 44.5 and was never in danger of going over.
Looking forward to this game, and the Knights opened 5.5-point home favourites on the look ahead line, before re-opening at the same number. Early money hit the market for the Tigers, dropping the spread to 3.5 almost immediately. The Tigers’ support has continued, to where the line now sits at 2.5. My number sits on 3.5, which really is no different to the 2.5 we currently sit at. This really is a coin flip, and I would be very surprised if the margin at the end was more than two converted tries.
Looking at the total, it opened at 46.5, and as expected has been bet under, where we now sit at 44.5. There is still meat on the bone for mine, and the under is the play here. The only concern for the under is if the Tigers defence looks like it did last week, but I believe with Luai and Skelton back, the edge defence will look a lot better. Trusting the Knights to hit 26 points isn’t something I would want going into this game, so the under is the play.
Under 44.5 Points
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Leg 1: Tigers (1-12) – This is close to a coin flip game, and I’ll take the higher odds with the Tigers, and the margin.
Leg 2: Under 44.5 total points – As above.
Leg 3: Sunia Turuva (1+ try) – Buy of the season contender, Turuva continues to look tremendous for the Tigers. A huge loss for the Panthers, and it shows.
SGM Odds: $10.00 at BoomBet
