This UFC303 card was originally meant to be headlined by the return of Conor McGregor against Michael Chandler. But with that fight delayed, we have a new headliner with Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka stepping in on short notice in what is a mouth-watering rematch for the Light Heavyweight title. In the co-main, Brian Ortega returns against a formidable opponent in Diego Lopez and Anthony Smith takes on the ever-dangerous Roman Dolidze. We take a look at my best bets on the card below.
UFC303 Predictions & Tips
Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
The last time these two Light Heavyweight strikers faced off, Alex Pereira came out on top but it was far from smooth sailing. After a muddling first round, Jiri Prochazka cracked ‘Poatan’ with a crisp one-two and moved in for the kill. But his over-eagerness cost him dearly as he was rocked by a brutal counter as he closed in. From there Prochazka scrambled to try to desperately get the fight to the mat so he could get a chance to recover but instead was smacked with a foray of elbows to the side of the head that saw him fall back and the fight was stopped.
Since that fight ‘Poatan’ dispatched Jamahal Hill with ease to retain the belt and Prochazka outbrawled Alexander Rakic. However, Prochazka again showed his vulnerability to leg kicks in that fight and that once again is likely to prove costly against the Brazilian. I expect Pereira to chew up his lead leg early, which will lead to Prochazka needing to make the fight ugly. And that is a recipe for disaster.
Pereira’s counter striking is just too good for the rest of the division’s strikers, with the only real threat to him at Light Heavyweight in my opinion being Magomed Ankalaev. Back Poatan to retain his title.
Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO
$2.00 (3 Units)
Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopez
This fight was thrown together on a week’s notice and before the odds came out I had this as one I was hoping to find Diego Lopez in as an underdog. Lopez is a seriously good fighter who is dangerous everywhere and is a bit of a dark horse. However, he has opened as a favourite and Brian Ortega at plus money is a no-brainer.
While Lopez is a handful, he won’t willingly engage on the ground and ‘T-City’s’ boxing has improved drastically since he was outboxed on the feet by Max Holloway back in 2018. Since then, he has fought sporadically but his wins over Chan Sung Jung and Yair Rodriguez show he is still a serious contender at Featherweight.
I personally was thinking Lopez would open around $2.40 given the fact this is a major step up in competition and with the odds almost flipped Ortega is now a solid bet given the value. I don’t think he necessarily stops Lopez but will likely be the busier fighter and I find it hard to see Lopez stopping him.
Brian Ortega
$2.25 (2.5 Units)
Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze
Anthony Smith was meant to be taking on Carlos Ulberg. But after the Kiwi was forced to withdraw, Roman Dolidze has been thrown in on short notice. In a more baffling turn of events, Dolidze has opened favourite despite only having eight days’ notice to prepare and moving up a weight class. He is also coming into this bout down on confidence after being beaten in his last two fights and is up against a hardened veteran in Smith, who has taken on the best in the division.
While Dolidze has never been finished, I do like the chances of Lionheart stopping him on the mat. I believe he will use his boxing to push Dolidze to the fence before taking him to the ground and racking up damage. One way or another Smith gets his hand raised and I cannot comprehend what has made the oddsmakers open Dolidze as a strong favourite and expect the line to be much shorter or potentially be flipped come the time they make the walk to the Octagon.
Anthony Smith
$2.25 (4 Units)
