The UFC heads to Newark, New Jersey this weekend for UFC 302, headlined by Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier. In the co-main, Sean Strickland faces off with Paulo Costa, while also on the main card Kevin Holland is set to go toe-to-toe with Michal Oleksiejczuk in a fight not to be missed. We take a look at my three best bets on the card below.
UFC 302 Preview & Betting Tips
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
This is a lightweight title fight where the UFC has thrown in a fan favourite against a dominant wrestler hoping for a miracle upset. This weekend will mark the third crack for Dustin Poirier at undisputed UFC gold and could very well be the last time we see ‘The Diamond’ in the Octagon if he loses. He faces Islam Makhachev, the prodigal son of Khabib Nurmagomedov - a man who stopped Poirier in one of his prior bids for UFC glory. If the Dagestani gets past the American, he will equal the UFC record for most lightweight title defenses and I am backing him to do just that.
Timing more than anything has got Poirier this title shot and while he will always have a punchers chance as he has some of the best boxing in the division, he simply cannot compete on the ground. Time and time again the likes of Poirier and Justin Gaethje - a man who knocked Poirier out at UFC 291 - fall short against seasoned wrestlers and jiu jitsu practitioners. The reality is they may do wrestling and jiu jitsu practice but their takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground just isn’t good enough to be champion in this day and age.
Makhachev has also made huge strides on the feet in recent years, making a knockout even less likely and I believe Poirier will be lucky to last 10 minutes in the cage with Makhachev. If Poirier goes for his favourite guillotine submission - which has never worked - he will be made to pay for it, ending up either in a head and arm choke or a von flue choke. Back Makhachev to win by submission and if you want some extra value back it to happen in the opening five minutes.
Value: Makhachev submission Round 1 – $4.50 (1 Unit)
Islam Makhachev to win by submission
$2.20 (3 Units)
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
I love this fight from UFC matchmakers. Sean Strickland if one other judge scored one more round against Dricus Du Plessis to him, people would be talking about how he is a dominant champ. Instead he is facing the inactive and underwhelming Paulo Costa this weekend. However, despite saying that this fight is not black and white. Costa can land and hard and if Strickland doesn’t maintain composure he could be slept.
Strickland would be best served to come in with a similar plan as to that he had against Israel Adesanya when he dethroned the former champ. Strategic forward pressure and mixing up shots high and low is a game plan that would likely get it done. Costa is notorious for gassing out as the fight wears on and if he can keep him on the back foot, he can make this fight his own.
While it might seem unlikely that this fight goes all five rounds even by my assessment above, I think it actually does. While Strickland won’t slow down, he isn’t a finisher and Costa won’t quit on himself. So back the fight to go the distance at juicy odds.
Fight to go the distance - Yes
$2.80 (2 Units)
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
The odds here are not one sided enough as Kevin Holland is a legit middleweight and Michal Oleksiejczuk is a bang average one. Holland lost to Michael ‘Venom’ Page and Jack Della Maddalena in his last two fights but they are two of the best strikers in the UFC let alone the division and they fit into one of the two categories of fighters who can beat Holland- sniping strikers and heavy wrestlers.
Oleksiejczuk is neither of those things, he is a pressure fighter who consistently finds himself backed up to the fence and trying to survive while the other man tires himself out. While he has never been knocked out in his UFC career, Oleksiejczuk does find himself vulnerable to chokes and I believe that will be his downfall against Holland. While Holland holds the advantage on the feet, from top position he has nasty grappling and I see him catching Oleksiejczuk in transition.
Kevin Holland to win by submission
$4.30 (2 Units)
