Our tennis guru himself, Ace, is back with two more tennis previews for Monday October 28th 2024, as the tennis season slowly winds down. Here is a preview and best bet from ATP Paris and WTA Merida.
ATP Paris
A Davidovich Fokina vs S Baez
Monday, 11:40pm AEDT
Here we have one player that looked pretty solid in qualifying, and another player who is 2-12 on hardcourt against Top 80 players in the last 12 months.
It is hard to make a strong case for Sebastian Baez in any capacity here, unless the Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina mails in a shocking performance. It is hard to see that happening, with Davidovich Fokina making his way through qualifying with wins over Diaz Acosta and O’Connell, dropping serve only twice in 5 sets. What was particularly impressive yesterday was the Spaniard breaking O’Connell three times in the row in the deciding set, coming from a break down to claim the win 6-3 4-6 6-3.
Since the tour returned to the hardcourts after the Olympics, Baez has two wins to his name, defeating Giron in a final set tiebreak, and defeating Darderi in 4 sets at the US Open. He is finding a lot of first serves lately, however he struggles to assert any dominance in the rally given the lack of power behind it.
I was expecting a game handicap of 5.5 games here, so I will be siding with the Spaniard at the -4.5 games that is currently available.
Davidovich Fokina -4.5 games
$2.00 (1.25u)
WTA Merida
M Joint vs M Stakusic
Wednesday, 6:00am AEDT
For Australians, Maya Joint is certainly a name to keep an eye on in the years to come. Joint, along with other Australians such as Kim Birrell, currently sits very close to being able to make it into the main draw of the Australian Open without the need for a wildcard. She’d be almost guaranteed one anyway, however a first time entry into the Top 100 is certainly on the radar for the Australian in the weeks ahead. This time last year, Joint was ranked 1208 in the world and reaching the semi finals of ITF Sydney. She has held her own against some solid players, such as defeating Siegemund at the US Open, defeating Schmiedlova on clay, and taking sets off Yastremska and Martic.
She faces an up and coming Canadian talent in Marina Stakusic, who has also put together a strong season at 19 years of age. The world number 140 has halved her ranking since February, however comes into this tournament off an ITF Tampico title which included back to back to back matches over 2 hours 40 minutes in length.
It’s going to be hard to Stakusic to back up off a pretty gruelling week of tennis which included the need to qualify in Tampico. Joint’s level is certainly respectable, and I think we are getting some solid value here on the moneyline price for a play.
Joint to win
$2.10 (1.25u)
