The second game of Sunday’s slate sees a crucial game in the makeup of the top eight with Sydney hosting the Bulldogs at the SCG. A win would likely see the Dogs jump into the top eight, while the ladder leading Swans will be looking to bounce back after a poor month.
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2024 AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, 28th July, SCG
Back to back upset wins over Carlton and Geelong has seen the Western Bulldogs catapult back into the top eight mix, sitting in ninth just two points behind eighth placed Essendon. The Bulldogs produced a stunning five goal to none final quarter to beat Geelong by 47 points at GMHBA Stadium.
The Dogs midfield ran riot with Adam Treloar (31 disposals, 3 goals), Ed Richards (29 disposals, 2 goals) and Marcus Bontempelli (27 disposals) dominating proceedings, which gave their side a +22 inside 50 advantage and a +17 contested possession advantage.
The Bulldogs brought the heat, despite having 60 more disposals, Luke Beveridge’s side had 8 more tackles than Geelong. The Bulldogs recorded 86 tackles, well above their season average of 58.9 per game.
Sydney once again faltered in the fourth quarter to lose their third game from their last four in a two point loss to Brisbane. Sydney led by 15 points at three quarter time, before conceding four goals to two in the final quarter, the second time in the last three weeks they’ve lost despite leading at three quarter time.
The up and down nature of this close season has helped the Swans who are still two games clear at the top of the ladder. Their statistical profile still holds strong ranking 1st in points for, 1st for scores from stoppages, 1st for scores from turnovers, 1st for scores from defensive half and 1st for scores in the forward half.
The battle at the centre bounce will be crucial in the game with the Bulldogs ranked 1st for scores from centre bounces and the Swans ranked 5th. The centre bounce battle of Heeney, Warner and Gulden against Bontempelli, Treloar and Richards will go a long way to deciding the game on the small SCG ground.
Match Prediction: The Swans have enjoyed playing against the Dogs in recent seasons, winning four of the last five matches between the two sides. Although the Bulldogs have been outstanding in the last fortnight, it’s tough to see the Swans dropping another game, especially at the SCG. Sydney are 7-1 at the SCG this season with an average winning margin of 42 points.
The Bulldogs performance at GMHBA Stadium does give them a solid blueprint to victory on another small ground, however they face a much tougher challenge in the middle of the ground against a midfield that won’t allow them to have things all their way. This will be an entertaining contest, but Sydney will be too strong.
Sydney -16.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Week in, week out Errol Gulden keeps producing elite performances with the star Swan recording 25 or more disposals in fourteen of his last fifteen games. Gulden has recorded 25 and 30 disposals in his last two games against the Bulldogs.
Ed Richards 20+ Disposals: Ed Richards continues to flourish in the midfield, recording 29 disposals against Geelong last week. Since moving into the midfield in round 9, Richards has averaged 23 disposals per game.
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 2+ Goals: With the Dogs season on the line over the last two weeks, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has stepped up in a major way kicking 4 goals against Carlton and Geelong. The 2020 number one draft pick has kicked multiple goals in eight of his last nine matches, and in eleven of his sixteen games in 2024.
SGM Odds: $3.00 at BoomBet
