Just four teams remain in the hunt for the ultimate prize in the 2024 AFL Premiership season, and Preliminary final weekend begins on Friday night with Sydney hosting Port Adelaide at the sold out SCG. The Swans are the hot favourites to advance to the Grand Final, and we give you our thoughts and best bets for the match below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL Finals as well as the 2024 AFLW season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
SCG, Friday 20th September, 7:40pm (AEST)
Weather: 22 degrees, clear skies, moderate winds
Odds: Sydney ($1.34) vs Port Adelaide ($3.25)
Line: Sydney -18.5
Points: 168.5
Sydney have had an extra week off to recover and prepare for their home preliminary final thanks to an eight point win against the Giants in Week 1 of the finals. The Swans looked dead and buried for large portions against their crosstown rivals, but a 40-13 final term inspired by some Isaac Heeney heroics saw them end up six point winners.
The Swans face another tight selection squeeze this weekend, and a number of good players will miss out such is the depth of talent on their list. Swans skipper Callum Mills suffered a hamstring injury and will miss on Friday night. The word is that Robbie Fox will come into the side, which leaves Taylor Adams on the outer once again.
Port Adelaide were written off by many after their humiliating defeat against the Cats in Week 1 of the finals, but dug deep to knock off the rampaging Hawks at home last weekend. The Power were without arguably their three best ball users in defence with Ryan Burton, Dan Houston, and Kane Farrell all unavailable, but were able to find a way to advance to another preliminary final.
Charlie Dixon was a late out against the Hawks and unfortunately, key forward Todd Marshall suffered yet another concussion. Dixon is a chance to return after recovering from his illness and seems the obvious change at selection. Ryan Burton is also ready to return if called upon but that would mean someone very unlucky will make way.
Match Prediction: On the back of their dominant home and away season and gutsy comeback win in their opening game of the finals, Sydney have been priced as the very short favourites to win on Friday night and advance to the Grand Final. However, they’ll have to defy a couple of big trends if that’s to occur. The Swans have lost each of their last eight matches against the Power including a 112-point drubbing in Adelaide in Round 21.
On the flip side, the Power have been serial underperformers in the finals under Ken Hinkley. They’re yet to make it to a Grand Final under his tenure and haven’t won a finals match on the road since way back in 2014.
Regardless of their recent H2H failure, the Swans look extremely well poised in this clash. They have a health advantage with their list and the home ground/crowd on their side, as well as a whole extra week off to rest up. The Power can certainly keep things close if they’re to bring the same intensity they brought against the Hawks, but it’s extremely difficult to see the Swans not winning this match.
Sydney 1-39
$2.05 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Isaac Heeney 2+ Goals – After his heroic performance in the qualifying final you can expect Heeney to get significant attention from the Power, and a Drew tag looms likely. However, Heeney clearly excels when he pushes forward and is great value in the goalkicking markets.
Willie Rioli 2+ Goals – Was superb last weekend with a couple of goals and also kicked four in Round 21 against the Swans. He’s a big game player and I like him to hit the scoreboard again on Friday night.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
