Sydney will be out to put an end to their two game losing streak when they host the much improved North Melbourne. Can the Kangas cause another upset? Or will the ladder leaders get their season back on track?
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2024 AFL Round 18 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs North Melbourne
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, 13th July, SCG
A shock point loss to St Kilda saw Sydney drop back to back games after winning ten straight games between Rounds 4-15. The Swans led by 19 points at three quarter time, but conceded four goals to none in the final term to be overrun by the Saints.
Sydney’s three losses this year have come by margins of 5, 1 and 2 points and in their last two losses, they’ve had more scoring shots than their opposition. Although they shouldn’t have lost these games, there shouldn’t be too much concern with the Swans, given it’s their conversion inside 50 that has been the difference in their last two games.
North Melbourne lifted themselves off the bottom of the ladder with an upset win over Gold Coast, putting together another strong performance in what has been a good five week period for the Roos. After starting the season 0-11 with an average losing margin of 52 points, North Melbourne have gone 2-3 with losses of 1 point, 3 points and 17 points against the Pies, Dees and Dogs.
Although Sydney will be without Isaac Heeney, they regain captain Callum Mills for his first game of the season after a shoulder injury during the off-season. Although he was only named as an emergency, Luke Parker is available from selection after serving his VFL suspension, meaning Sydney have plenty of upside for the run to finals despite being such a dominant team.
Sydney will be eager to make a statement this week at home where they have a 6-1 record. Across those seven games at the SCG, the Swans have averaged 107 points per game and an average winning margin of 36 points across their six wins.
Match Prediction: Although North have shown massive improvement over the last five weeks, playing Sydney at the SCG is a whole nother level of challenge. The Swans are the highest scoring team in the competition averaging 102 points per game, while the Roos are the third lowest scoring team in the league averaging 70 points per game. Being able to match the level of quality and intensity over four quarters is going to be tough for the Kangaroos. So many times this season we have seen Sydney break games open in five and ten minute bursts, which North have been on the end of by plenty of sides this season.
The Swans have been a hoodoo team for North Melbourne, with Sydney having won the last seven encounters between the two sides. The Swans have generated plenty of scoring opportunities despite their losses, and if they can convert this week things could get ugly for North Melbourne.
Sydney -46.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Errol Gulden has been ultra consistent in 2024, reaching the 25+ disposal mark in 13 of his 16 games. With Isaac Heeney out, Gulden will need to shoulder more of the load, which won’t be an issue given he’s averaged 28 disposals per game this season.
Nick Blakey 20+ Disposals: Nick Blakey has been on fire across the last three weeks despite Sydney’s struggles, averaging 23 disposals per game. Blakey has averaged 20 disposals across his last two games against North Melbourne.
Chad Warner 2+ Goals: Chad Warner is often one of the first players looked at when it comes to disposal markets, however his goal kicking record for a midfielder is off the charts. Warner has kicked 26 goals this season, including 2+ goals in six of his last eight games.
SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet
