The minor premiers get one last tune up before the finals series when they host Adelaide at the SCG on Saturday night. Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview and best bets!
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2024 AFL Round 24 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Adelaide
Saturday 7:40pm AEST, 24th August, SCG
Sydney secured the minor premiership with a 39 point win over Essendon at Marvel Stadium last week. The Swans were far from convincing and were lucky to only be down by seven points at half time. However it was all Sydney in the second half as they piled on twelve goals to four to run out comfortable winners.
Isaac Heeney (3 goals, 22 disposals) and Luke Parker (3 goals) were the difference with their efficiency in front of goal, however the Swans midfield were below their usual standards. Sydney recorded -35 disposals, -20 contested possessions, -6 inside 50’s and -6 tackles, although their front half work got the job done, that kind of performance won’t stand up against the best in September.
Adelaide had a nightmare week in the Showdown after Josh Rachele’s comments during the week, with the Crows failing to back the talk in a 22 point loss. Rachele has been dropped, paired with Izak Rankine’s concussion, leaving Adelaide’s forward line looking far less potent.
The difference between the quality in each side’s attacking games is already a big issue for the Crows who rank 13th in the competition in points for (82 points per game). Sydney are the highest scoring team in the AFL averaging 96 points per game and are ranked 1st for scores from stoppage, 1st for scores from turnover, 1st for scores from forward half 2nd for scores from defensive half.
Sydney just about tick every box when it comes to their forward half game and it improves when they play at the SCG where they have averaged 102 points per game this season. The Swans have a 8-2 record at home this season, and have scored above 110 point points in five of their ten home games.
Adelaide are ranked second in the competition for contested possessions, so if they are to be competitive in this game, they are going to need to hold their form at the coalface. It hasn’t converted into wins this season, but Matthew Nicks’ side has been good in and around the contest.
Match Prediction: In a year where the Crows were expected to jump into the eight after barely missing out last season, the end of the season can’t come quickly enough for Matthew Nicks’ side. It leaves them vulnerable to this game being an ugly one for a side with nothing to lose or gain.
Sydney have won five straight games against Adeaide by an average margin of 22 points, with three of those five wins coming by over five goals including a 42 point win when these sides last met back in Round 14. The Swans will be eager to produce a convincing performance to give them some much needed momentum heading into finals, and they’ll continue their strong record against Adelaide.
Sydney -20.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Chad Warner 25+ Disposals: Chad Warner absolutely loves playing at the SCG, where he has recorded 25 or more touches in seven out of ten games. Warner averages 25.6 disposals per game at the SCG, two disposals higher than his season average of 23.6 per game.
Matt Crouch 25+ Disposals: Matt Crouch has been a rare positive for the Crows this season, with the former all Australian averaging 30 disposals per game from 14 games in 2024. Crouch has recorded over 25 disposals in eight straight games, and has only gone under 25 disposals once this season, recording 24 disposals in Round 7.
Luke Parker Anytime Goalscorer: With the strength of Sydney’s midfield this season, Luke Parker has had to play forward upon his return to the side, and has been very effective. Parker has kicked a goal in four of his six games this season, despite being subbed off three times. Parker has kicked five goals in his last two games.
SGM Odds: $3.40 at BoomBet
