With the home and away season in the rear-view mirror, the NRL Finals kick off this weekend, with a double header on Saturday kicking off with the 2nd Qualifying Final, between the Sharks and Storm. With the winner just one game away from a Grand Final, the stakes are high. Let’s take a look!
NRL 2024 Finals Week 1 Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks
AAMI Park, Saturday 14th September, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Storm had a nice little training run last weekend, blowing by the Broncos 50-10 last Thursday night, making it their 8th win in 10 games heading into the finals. Jahrome Hughes was unstoppable for the Storm, scoring three tries, breaking the line three times, setting up two tries, and creating four line-break assists. Speaking of unstoppable, towering winger Will Warbrick ran for almost 300m, broke the line five times, and scored three tries. The Storm are the form team in the competition and will be hard to beat this weekend.
The Sharks also put their stamp on another positive season, spanking the Sea Eagles at Brookvale 40-20 to book their spot in the top 4. Briton Nikora wreaked havoc for the Sharks, scoring a double whilst breaking the line twice, and creating two line-breaks with his ball playing. The Sharks broke the line 9 times, whilst only missing 17 tackles in a clinical display that should have them brimming with confidence heading into Saturday’s qualifying final.
Match Preview
These teams met once this season, all the way back in round 10, when the Sharks produced a massive upset as they got the win in Melbourne 25-18. Both teams were missing their halfback, the Sharks were just the better team, executing when it mattered late to get the win as 7.5-point road underdogs, as the total closed 41.5.
As for the big clash this weekend, the Storm opened 8.5-point favourites, with Storm money coming in early to where they now sit anywhere from 8.5 to 10.5-point favourites. I immediately jumped on the Storm -8.5; however, and see value in the storm to cover this spread. I make them close to 12-point favourites and can see them making a statement early in this finals series and putting a beating on the Sharks, who have been inconsistent most of the season and have struggled mightily in finals’ matches lately.
As for the total, it opened 44.5 and has been bet up slightly to 45.5, with a close of 46.5 expected from my numbers. Most people have had the impression lately that finals football lends itself to lower scoring, however week 1 of the finals lately has been quite the opposite. I like the over here but prefer the Storm to cover as my best bet.
Storm -9.5
$1.88 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Storm (team total) over 26.5 – I see the Storm putting on a clinic on Saturday afternoon and predict them to score 30+.
W Warbrick (1+ try) – Warbrick will be attacking the left side of the Sharks, their worst side defensively all season. Warbrick is a try scoring machine, and running of Hughes will make it almost impossible to stop.
R Mulitalo (1+ try) – Mulitalo knows how to sniff the line out, and if anyone is going to score for the Sharks it’s their left winger.
SGM Odds: $6.72 at Ladbrokes
