Just 4 teams remain in the 2024 NRL season and it is fitting that they are the best 4 teams across the season. Teams are one win away from featuring in a Grand Final and with everything to play for, the action is expected to be exhilarating. The first game of the weekend heads down to Melbourne as the Storm host the Roosters. The Storm are representing their state this weekend in what is a big weekend for the AFL and they will want to make a statement here. The Roosters will have other ideas, setting the stage for a fierce contest. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead, breaking down the match and aiming to find you a winner or two to add to your viewing enjoyment.
NRL Finals Week 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters
AAMI Park – Friday 27th September – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm enjoyed a weekend off last week following a dominating 37-10 win over the Sharks in Week 1 of the Finals. Finishing the season off as Minor Premiers, they displayed another level of class against an opponent that has often troubled them. After scoring early, it became a tight contest, and they headed into HT ahead 14-10. The Storm kicked into another gear in the second half, scoring 4 tries in 15 minutes and keeping their opponents scoreless. It was reward for the grinding work they had put in earlier in the match, wearing their opponents down and taking their opportunities towards the end of the match. Their dominance and execution were highlighted statistically; with 59% possession they were near perfect controlling the ball, completing at 95%. They averaged 9.6m per carry, made 753 PCM’s and had 5 line breaks. They were strong defensively too, missing just 20 tackles and allowing just 8.6m per carry to their opponents. This performance was a clear statement of where they are at.
The Roosters bounced back from a disappointing loss in Week 1 to the Panthers to defeat the Sea Eagles 40-16 last week. Scoring 3 unanswered tries to begin the match, they lead comfortably 20-4 at HT and only went on with the result in the second half. There was a clear difference between what they were producing and the level of execution of their opponents; even with a host of injuries to key players, they still possess talent across the park. Like the Storm, this was typified by the way they controlled the ball, completing at 87% with 56% possession gave few opportunities away to their opponents. This allowed them to make 350+ more metres and have 8 line breaks. Their defence was also resolute, allowing just 2 line breaks and missing just 19 tackles.
Match Prediction
The Storm are listed as strong favourites for this match ($1.30 vs $3.50) and it is little surprise given the Roosters record against them. Not only have they won just 2 of the past 13 matches, but the Roosters also struggle with the trip to Melbourne; they’ve won twice here since 2015 and 4 times overall (for a 31% record – Storm 76%).
The Storm were victorious over the Roosters in Round 7 (18-12) and Round 20 (24-8) but the season statistics suggest it should be closer than expected. The home side scores fewer points in attack (29ppg vs Roosters 30ppg) and concedes slightly less defensively (18ppg vs Roosters 19ppg) but majority of those matches were played with the Roosters’ key players, where the Storm are still coming to terms with having a full-strength team. This will hurt the Roosters; losing your first-choice halfback and hooker would undoubtedly impact any team. The visitors will try and compensate by controlling the middle of the field.
A fierce start to the match is expected and the Roosters have a pack of forwards which can disrupts most. The fact that they were comprehensively defeated in the opening stages against the Panthers in Week 1 will better prepare them for this match. So too will last week’s result; the Sea Eagles are inferior to the Storm both in talent and tactics. The Storms spine will rely on their forwards winning the battle up front and even if it doesn’t happen the way they would like, their key players can produce moments of brilliance which can turn the match.
It is certainly the closer of the two Preliminary Finals this weekend, but the home side look set to progress through to next week. It should be noted that the average winning margin in the past 5 matches is 12.2 points, meaning it could be closer than expected. One this is for sure, matches between these teams are always low scoring affairs; the average total points in the past 5 matches is 35 points. Use both to your advantage here.
Total Points Under 45.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
The first option is selected because this match is expected to be close. The season averages from both teams suggest as much. Warbrick is the Storms leading try scorer this season with 16 tries and is a threat both in the air and on the ground; he has only improved with each match this season. Hughes scored first in the Round 7 match and has been one of the best players in the competition all season. His support play makes him a good selection, but he will also look to take the line on and pressure defenders.
Storm 1-12
Warbrick & Hughes to Score
SGM Odds: $21 at Ladbrokes – 0.5 Units
