The final game on NRL Super Saturday heads to Cronulla for a rematch of the Round 1 fixture between the Sharks and Warriors. Both sides have experienced vastly different campaigns since that encounter and the Sharks are lock into the Top 4. Meanwhile, this is the last game of the season for the Warriors, who failed to make the Finals and have a Bye next week. There is still plenty to play for in this match and with an intriguing contest ahead, Before You Bet is here to help find you a winner or two with a detailed preview of this matchup.
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 26 Preview & Betting Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm
PointsBet Stadium – Saturday 31st August – 7:35pm (AEST)
The Sharks faced off against rivals, the Dragons, and reminded them which team is set to finish inside the Top 4 with a commanding 38-10 victory on the road. Starting strongly, the Sharks controlled every area of the match, scoring 7 tries and only conceding 2 in an impressive display. Their domination was reflected on the stats sheet; with 55% possession, they completed at 77%, averaged 9.5m per carry, had 642 PCM’s and created 8 line breaks. They also only conceded 2 over 80 minutes and missed just 28 tackles. It was a performance that was needed to boost their confidence ahead of the Finals. The Warriors played their final game of the season in front of their home fans and farewell club legend, Shaun Johnson, in special circumstances. After a strong first half, they lead 18-16 at HT and would’ve considered themselves a chance of capturing victory. Unfortunately for them, when the Bulldogs kicked into another gear, they couldn’t match them and were eventually defeated 34-18. The fact that they couldn’t score a point in the second half is a perfect summary of their inconsistent season. With 48% possession they completed at 78%, ran for fewer metres (1,313m), yet had slightly more PCM’s (444) and missed fewer tackles (28). Unfortunately, they couldn’t do anything with this and failed, much like they have for majority of this year.
Verdict
The Sharks are strong favourites to win this match ($1.17 vs $5) and rightly so. Not only do they have a 58% record at home, but they have also won 8/10 here this season. The Warriors have won just 2 games on the road this year and have a 28% record at this ground. To compound the challenge for the visitors, they sore fewer points in attack (26ppg vs 20ppg) and concede more in defence (17ppg vs 23ppg). The personnel changes of both teams are not likely to impact the result. The return of a noted halfback for the Sharks last week created stability and that doesn’t appear to be disappearing any time soon. The Sharks were victorious in the Round 1 meeting 16-12 and with a lot changing since then, they are well placed to make it 2/2 against the Warriors in 2024. This game is a matter of ‘how much’ for the Sharks’; assuming that they are going to try and finish higher up on the ladder, they will want to have a positive influence on their points difference. This makes the margin of victory likely to be over 2 converted tries, also bringing the line (14.5) into play. With the average margin of victory in their past 5 matches sitting at 15.8 points, expect the home side to win this match comfortably in the end.
Sharks -14.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
The margin option needs no emphasis. The averaged points in the past 5 matches between these two sides sits at 47.8 and the season averages indicate that they will surpass this. Katoa returns to the Sharks team and has crossed 14 times this season (2nd overall).
- Sharks 13+
- Total Points over 48.5
- Katoa to score
SGM Odds: $4.10 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
