Super Saturday in the NRL kicks of at GIO Stadium in Canberra, with the Raiders hosting the Panthers without superstar halfback Nathan Cleary once again. After being the heavy favourite all season to lift a fourth straight Premiership, the Panthers have now dropped to equal favourites to lift the trophy. Is the Dynasty over, or can they bounce back yet again? Find out our thoughts and best bets below!
NRL Round 25 Preview & Betting Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers
GIO Stadium, Saturday 24th August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Raiders’ season effectively ended last weekend, as they were obliterated by the Cowboys in Townsville 42-4. The Raiders’ chances of making the top 8 were already slim, however despite still being mathematically able to make the top 8, their season is effectively over. The Raiders gave up 2100 running metres, 9 line-breaks and 7 tries, whilst missing 38 tackles and making 14 errors. There wasn’t even an excuse in the Ricky Stuart book to justify that performance, and plans for Mad Monday have more than likely commenced in the Nation’s Capital.
The Panthers also suffered a terrible loss last weekend, not for the result per se, but with superstar halfback Nathan Cleary suffering yet another major injury in a 24-22 home loss to the Storm. Statistically, the game was as tight as the final score, with a couple of key moments proving the difference. Isaah Yeo was enormous for the Panthers, making 46 tackles and running for 192 metres, whilst also setting up a try. Elsewhere, rookie centre Casey McLean continued to show he is ready for first grade, running for 178 metres whilst setting up a try, scoring one of his own, and breaking the line twice. They just keep unearthing talent at the foot of the mountains.
Match Preview
The Panthers have had a complete stranglehold over the Raiders in recent years, winning the last five games by an average score of 34-9. In their most recent matchup, the Panthers headed to Canberra in round 5 last season as 11.5-point road favourites, running away 53-12 winners. It was a dominant win, and cause for concern for the Raiders who have little to play for this weekend. The total closed 39.5, with the Panthers smashing through that on their own.
This weekend, the Panthers opened 8.5-point road favourites after Nathan Cleary was ruled out of this game, and with Panthers’ money slowly filtering through, the spread now sits at 9.5 and closing in on 10.5. I make the Panthers a 10-point favourite, so I don’t see any value in this game regarding spread betting.
As for the total, it opened 46.5 and has remained there all week. I make a fair total 42.5, so the over looks interesting to me, however the Panthers’ defence isn’t what it was to start the season, and I can imagine the Raiders attack throwing everything they have at this game. With this game being in the afternoon, points shouldn’t be at a premium here.
The Panthers are not blowing out teams this season, especially in the later rounds, with only one of their games since round 13 ending in a 13+ margin. Whilst the Raiders could easily give up again in this game, I’ll take them to keep this within two converted tries here.
Panthers By 1-12
$3.25 (1 Units)
Same Game Multi
Panthers ML – Panthers have far too much to play for here, with a loss severely hampering their chance at a top 2 finish.
M Timoko (1+ try) – Timoko has only four tries this season in 21 games, making this leg look a bit silly. But with so many changes happening in the Panthers’ backline lately, I like him to bust a few tackles near the line for a try.
I Tago (1+ try) – Tago has scored four tries in the past three games, and despite him missing Nathan Cleary inside him this weekend, he seems to be playing well enough to score again here against a poor Raiders edge defence.
SGM Odds: $11.99 at Neds
