The second NRL game on Friday night will see bitter rivals face one another when the South Sydney Rabbitohs host the Sydney Roosters. Robbed of its usual meaningful context, both sides will be aware of how important a win against a club, which they despise, is for their fanbase. The Rabbitohs will also not feature beyond this week and will take joy in inflicting further pain on the Finals-bound Roosters. Before You Bet is here to make sense of the spiteful clash with a comprehensive look at the action ahead.
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters
Accor Stadium – Friday 6th September – 8pm (AEST)
The Rabbitohs were always going to struggle against the Panthers in Penrith, who themselves were coming off a loss. They quickly found themselves behind 18-nil inside 25 minutes and struggled to halt their opponent’s momentum at any stage in the contest, eventually defeated 34-12. They were strangled out of the match with just 45% possession and limited to just 8m per carry; they also had one line break over 80 minutes. Their defence was poor too, allowing 8 line breaks and missing 46 tackles.
The Roosters Finals hopes suffered a major blow in their 14-12 loss to the Raiders, with the loss of 3 key players to season-ending injuries. The news overshadowed what was otherwise, a poor performance from a club which is capable of better. They didn’t score a try in the first half and were made to wait until the 63rd minute before crossing; they also faced an opponent who were limited to just 12 players on the field for 20 minutes. Even with an 60% share of possession and an 80% completion rate, they were still ineffective. They dominated just about every area on the back of the strong possession experienced but were unable to convert this into points. Losing their halfback in the match didn’t help, but others should’ve stepped up to fill the void left. It will be interesting to see how they manage in coming weeks.
Verdict
Despite chaos reigning at the Roosters, they have named a strong team for this clash. This has seen them listed as favourites ($4.20 vs $1.23); naming Sandon Smith at halfback has kept the door ajar for a shift of Manu there at some stage. Watson is a capable hooker and will add a different, arguably faster, dimension to their attack. The Rabbitohs have their own issues to deal with, as Wighton has been ruled out. Without him and Murray, a lot of experience is lost. This is a second-rate team coming up against a side which will be featuring in the Finals. The odds should be far longer than what is listed.
The Roosters have the edge over their rivals too, winning 4 out of the past 5 games. The Round 3 match saw a 48-6 victory for them, and it is highly likely that a similar outcome will occur. The Rabbitohs leak too many points defensively and have done so throughout the year (28ppg vs Roosters 18ppg) and the Roosters have shown all season long that their attack needs no invitation to score points (30ppg vs Rabbitohs 20ppg). This may be hampered without Walker at halfback, but such is the strength of their pack, they will likely set a strong platform and allow extra opportunities for Smith and Keary to click into gear as a new combination. That hasn’t even factored in Tedesco or the other outside backs desperate to make up for last week. The average margin of victory in the past 5 games is 16.8 points and even that might be eclipsed over 80 minutes.
Roosters -13.5
$1.90 (2 units)
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Total Points Over 53.5: 54 points were scored in their Round 3 match and with the Roosters needing to bounce back from last week, the same total looks likely.
Tedesco, Manu and Sua’li’i to score: The centres for the Rabbitohs have proven vulnerable this season and look outclassed by Manu and Sua’li’i. Tedesco is tremendous in support play and will likely be pushing through the middle as his forwards set a strong platform.
Combined Odds: $11.00 at Boombet
