It’s only been one week without footy, but it seems like an eternity since Freo fell at the final hurdle and our final 8 was set for the 2024 AFL Premiership season. And now, the next four weeks will decide who out of Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn or Carlton will become our 2024 AFL Premiers.
It all gets underway at 7:40pm AEST Thursday night as the sounds of INXS will be drowned out by the 50,000 rabid Port Adelaide fans at the Adelaide Oval, who will want nothing more than the blood of Geelong on the road to the elusive premiership.
Check out our Port Adelaide vs Geelong preview and betting tips below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL Finals, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Qualifying Final Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs Geelong
Friday September 6th, 7:40pm AEST, Adelaide Oval
Weather: Sunny 25 degrees
Odds: Port Adelaide ($1.47) vs Geelong ($2.68)
Line: Port Adelaide -12.5
Points: 166.5
It’s 2nd versus 3rd for Thursday night’s Qualifying Final and the third time these two teams have met in a Qualifying Final in the last five years. The winner gets a week off and a home Preliminary Final which is the fast lane to the big dance. The loser gets a second chance but it’s a long road home as they’ll have to get past either the in-form Hawks or Bulldogs, before an away Preliminary Final in Sydney. A tough ask! So it’s high stakes in this one as our 2024 Finals series kicks off with a bang.
It’s been a bizarre year for Port Adelaide, with the players booed and the coach humiliated after being smashed by Brisbane at home in Round 15. However they have since won 8 of their last 9, including a thumping of the top-of-the-table Swans, to storm into 2nd place at the end of the regular season. Last round they were impressive with a professional away win against a desperate Fremantle - a perfect tune up for a finals campaign.
Their speedy midfield has given trouble to many opposition, and their high pressure and strong tackling numbers will be key in a finals environment.
While there’s lots to like about Port, they have copped some key outs at the wrong time of the season. Dan Houston’s suspension was untimely and then Kane Farrell did a hammy last round and will also miss. That leaves a big gap at half-back and effective distribution of the ball from the back half will be very important for them here. Todd Marshall is also a watch as he comes out of concussion protocols.
Meanwhile the Cats have found their way into 3rd place on the ladder after a very swingy season. They started off 7-0 before losing 6 of their next 7 as suddenly everyone wrote them off. They’ve come home strong with 7 of their last 9 to make yet another finals appearance, but is their form as good as that stat reads? The run home was a little soft, with easy wins over North and West Coast, while they fell over the line against Adelaide. There was a good win out west against Freo, and a disappointing loss against the Saints. It’s not the most convincing of form lines.
While previous Geelong final campaigns have been built around strong defence, it’s been an area of concern for the Cats this season. They have given up the second most points this season of the eight finalists, and they’ll want to turn this game into a grind if they are to come out on top. If there’s speed on the ball, then the Power might be too quick for the Cats to stop.
Sam De Koning and Gary Rohan look set to be recalled, while Tom Hawkins and Cam Guthrie might still have to prove their fitness. Jeremy Cameron remains the most important player on their list but he carries a lot of weight on his shoulders, so if he's shut down, it's almost game over.
When they last met in Round 9 it was a cracking game. Port got the surprise win by 9 points at GMHBA Stadium, but not before a massive late surge from the Cats. I don’t see this one being a blowout, especially with the intensity of a finals match generally producing tighter contests. Port are currently -12.5 favourites but my preferred bet is to take them at the 1-39 margin.
Port Adelaide 1-39
$2.10 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare button below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Port Adelaide win - As described above, Port will start warm favourites at home and should get the job done to progress to a home Preliminary Final.
Zak Butters 30+ Disposals – I expect Butters to lead from the front in the midfield for the Power with Rozee a little sore the last few weeks. Butters has hit the 30+ disposal mark in 50% of his matches this season, including 34 against Geelong last time they met. Geelong concede disposals to opposition inside midfielders, and I don't think there will be a tag, so happy to back him to have a big game.
Jason Horne-Francis Score Anytime – JHF is going from strength to strength and this finals series could be the making of him. Has kicked 25 goals this season, and scored in 16 of 21 matches which is an excellent strike rate. If you want juicier odds, back for 2+ goals which he's hit 8 times this season, including his last 3 matches.
SGM Odds: $3.90 at BoomBet
