The NRL Finals series begins in Penrith on Friday with a blockbuster game between the Panthers and Roosters. Both teams have experienced successful seasons to date and have been rewarded by finishing inside the Top 4. While the Roosters do not have the home ground advantage, they will relish the opportunity to cause an upset. The home ground of the Panthers also has one more story left before it is redeveloped. With the stage set for an exhilarating contest, Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at a quality match ahead.
NRL Finals Week 1 Betting tips
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
BlueBet Stadium – Friday 13th September – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Panthers finished in 2nd position on the competition ladder following a tight 18-14 win over the Titans. Struggling for momentum, they managed just the one try in the first half and trailed 6-4 at the break. Starting the second half strongly, they were able to take control of the contest and grind out a victory. While the result may leave some wondering if the Panthers have lost their edge in recent years, you cannot overlook the fact that this team knows how to win. They overcame a poor 68% completion rate by dominating possession (55%); their defence was the difference as they allowed just 2 line breaks and 8.2m per carry to their opponents.
The Roosters entered in a new direction in their match against the Rabbitohs, attempting different combinations to cover the losses of key personnel. They were dominant in the second half, building on their 14-10 HT lead. Only 3 late ‘garbage time’ tries narrowed the margin to 36-28. Much like the Panthers, the Roosters were not overly convincing; with 52% possession they completed at just 73% but did manage 9.4m per carry and 7 line breaks. Allowing 4 line breaks and missing 25 tackles against an inferior attacking team will be an area they will want to address heading into this week.
Match Prediction
The big inclusion for the Panthers is the return of Cleary. Whether he is ready or not will be debated at length (unqualified opinions) but his place on the field is enough to make the Panthers favourites for this game ($1.40 vs $3). The Roosters are boosted by their own returning players, namely Young, Tupou, Collins and Butcher. While their inclusion improves the Roosters chances, it is unlikely to sway the momentum of this contest in the visitor’s favour.
The Panthers have already defeated their opponents once this season, a 22-16 victory in Round 4. It was a tighter match that time around, with the Panthers class evident. That win added to the tally of victories the Panthers have over their opponents, which now stretches to 9 wins. Not only have they not defeated their opponents for a while, but the last time also they were victorious at this ground was in Round 3, 2017; they have a 41% strike rate at this ground compared to the Panthers 61%.
It would take the perfect game plan devised by coach Robinson to change the course of this match. The Panthers forwards appear to possess a greater ability to generate momentum through the middle. The Roosters will fight hard to slow their opponents down, this is the type of game whereby the Panthers spend 60 minutes wearing down an opponent to only pull away late.
The Roosters averaging a higher number of points in attack over the year (24ppg vs 30ppg) means that the Panthers will need to defend strongly. They have the edge in this area over their opponents but only slightly (16ppg vs 19ppg). This suggests that the margin of victory will be fewer than 2 converted tries; that does go against the recent trend of 20.4 points in their past 5 matches, but Finals rugby league usually delivers in this area.
Panthers 1-12
$3 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Keeping the legs low this week, with the hope that a simple SGM can deliver a larger return. The average total points scored in their past 5 matches is 42.8 but only one was more than 44 points. Their Round 4 contest saw a total of 38 points scored. Sorensen has been back to his damaging best on the edge for the Panthers. Expect both Cleary and Luai to make use of his services when going to the line and pressure the Roosters edge defenders, who may be worried about other options.
Total Points Under 41.5
Sorensen to Score
SGM Odds: $11 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
