Cup Week continues at Flemington on Thursday for Oaks Day, with the 2500m feature attracting a strong field. The track as of Monday evening is a Good 4 and with fine weather on the cards, the track will be on the firm side. Find Adam Page's best bets for Oaks Day at Flemington below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Thursday, November 7th 2024
Race 1: TCL Trophy 1700m - 12.40pm AEDT
*SCRATCHED* (7) Changing Colours is short enough but I can't see her getting beat in what looks a thin race. Did a bit wrong at Ballarat last time, beaten as a deep odds on favourite, but she is hard fit now, gets J Mac and the stable is flying. The one to beat.
(8) Swycho brings solid SA form for Michael Hickmott and has a good racing style. Dominant win on Gawler Cup Day last start, albeit beating nothing. But, she'll press forward and the stable rarely get it wrong when they come across.
(3) Grey Ice has upside and an in-form Craig Williams to steer. She ran over the mile at The Valley and while she lacked a turn of foot, she stayed on and was pretty good in defeat I thought. Not sure I could back her to win but she's a must for exotics.
Race 2: Century Stakes 1000m - 1.15pm AEDT
Open race this with a host of chances but I am siding with the class, (1) Kallos. Can make a case to say he wins the Schillaci last time but just didn't get room to move in the straight when seemingly having plenty to offer. He loves the straight course and J Mac sticks.
(8) Garza Blanca is hit and miss at times but his best is more than good enough. He resumes for Ciaron Maher after a two run Autumn prep where you'd have to say he was disappointing vs previous campaigns. Jumpout work has been encouraging and he will be strong late at the end of a hard 1000m.
(10) Philosopher isn't up to these re class but he's going to give an almighty sight from near the front aka Najem Suhail in this race last year. He was given an ordinary steer by Carleen Hefel at The Valley on Cox Plate and should have finished closer. Positive ride, he will give cheek.
(1) Kallos
$3.95 (2 Units)
Race 3: Good Friday Appeal Trophy 2000m - 1.50pm AEDT
(6) Duke Of Condicote is worth a throw at the stumps at odds. Import that made his Australian debut at Caulfield where he got too far back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, his finale in defeat was solid. Fitter and up in trip, good tick over trial since, he's an each way speck.
(4) Motorace is a stablemate of Swycho that also comes here off the back of two wins in SA, the latest at Murray Bridge where he looked hard to beat on paper and duly saluted in impressive fashion. Good test here, but confident he measures up.
(2) Dublin Journal is the last start Horsham Cup winner that maps ideally. The win at Horsham was similar to the map here. He got the A1 run in transit, angled clear and drove hard late to win. Harder here, but he's hard fit, in form and is genuine.
(6) Duke Of Condicote
$19/$6.40 (0.5 Units)
Race 4: Inglis Bracelet 1600m - 2.30pm AEDT
(1) Roots brings a class edge vs her rivals and I'll bank on that class getting her home. Her recent runs in Sydney have been just fair but she did win this race a couple of years ago, she gets to the mile and a big tick is that she gets J Mac back aboard.
(3) Second To Nun has been up forever it seems but she is still maintaining a healthy zest for racing. Far from disgraced in the JRA Cup on Cox Plate Day and I do think back to the mile and back to Mares grade, she'll take beating.
(2) Queen Of Dragons ran second on Cup Day last year behind Warmonger so she has the quality to figure in the finish. Her recent runs have been just fair but she is another who likes Flemington and can settle handy.
(1) Roots
$4.60 (2 Units)
Race 5: Off The Track Plate 1800m - 3.10pm AEDT
(8) Verdad...he's been a money muncher this prep but he hasn't burned the amount of holes in my pockets compared to others. Given every chance at The Valley last time and was run down late, but I do think the big tick for him here is J Mac on. If he can't get it home, the horse will never win again. Last chance territory.
(5) Alder is a horse with talent and keen to see how he goes first up for Busuttin/Young after a Winter prep where he was mixed. At times, he looked pretty good but the end of prep run was plain. Jumpout work has been encouraging and 1800m fresh signals intent.
(10) Picaroon comes back to 1800m and is dangerous given she won on this day last year, taking out the Country Final. She ran in the Hamilton Cup last time and was just fair, struggling to see out the 2200m. Back in trip I like and I think with a patient steer, she can be quite effective.
(8) Verdad
$2.60 (4 Units)
Race 6: Country Cup Final 1600m - 3.50pm AEDT
Potentially, an open race, but if (5) Oh Too Good can slot in from the wide gate, I think good luck beating him. He was in the plum spot at Geelong last time but even allowing for that, he was arrogant the way he put them away, and keep in mind he was first up. Stack of improvement to come, he's the one to beat, and clearly.
(4) Magarten is a very genuine animal for Jerome Hunter and has to be respected as a threat given he has a more kind map on paper vs Oh Too Good, and his win at Hamilton was good, getting better as the race went on and surged late. One of the hardest to beat outside the favourite.
(3) Eye Of The Eagle is a slight query at the mile but has a gate to do no work. He let down with purpose from off the speed to win at Sale last time, giving them a start and a beating. He'll get a soft trip in transit and is a must for exotics.
(5) Oh Too Good
$3.35 (4 Units)
Race 7: Red Roses Stakes 1100m - 4.30pm AEDT
I think the market will flip come jump time and I reckon (16) Vestas will start favourite. Gee her win on debut at Cranbourne was arrogant, getting better as the race went on and the change up speed late was that of a sharp filly. Jumped out here down the straight alongside Coolmore Stud horses and for mine, she was a standout. How is she not favourite?
(11) I Found You is a filly I've had time for since day one and I know Peter Snowden has a high opinion of her. She had a two run Winter prep, winning like a rocket on debut before a good effort here, probably giving her a look at the straight with this race in mind. She's the only threat.
(18) Damehood commands respect for me. Ciaorn Maher trained filly that went like a rocket I thought on debut at Ballarat, getting better as the race went on and was quite sharp the way she put them away late in the piece. Good test here stepping up to this level but for mine, she looks well above average.
(16) Vestas
$9.00 (3 Units)
Race 8: Crown Oaks 2500m - 5.10pm AEDT
I am going with the Wakeful form but I'll side with (7) Talisay at odds. On paper, just a run, but watching the replay and the way the race was run, she had no hope, but her late splits were quite good and her sectionals were third best behind the first two. I think she'll love 2500m and she's the right price to find out, and I dare say she'll get out.
(2) Too Darn Discreet is flying for Dan O'Sullivan and has to be respected. She has won three on the bounce, the latest being the Ethereal a few weeks back when just off the speed before being clicked up and although she was there to be beaten, she found and was too good. Not sure what upside there is but she only has to hold her form to take beating.
(12) Inevitable Truth is still a maiden but she has talent for John Sargent. She fourth in the Wakeful. Lacked change up speed when initially asked for the effort but she kept on and was good late in the piece behind Treasurethe Moment. Maps to do no work and be effective late.
(7) Talisay
$53/$9.10 (0.5U/1U)
Race 9: Chester Manifold Stakes 1600m - 5.50pm AEDT
*SCRATCHED* (13) Splash Back is a mare with a decent engine under the hood and she looks to have returned in beast mode. She resumed on Seymour Cup Day where she gave them a start and a beating, letting down with sustained change up speed and was impressive. Gets three wide cover and launches late.
2 Light Infantry Man hasn't done much since arriving from overseas but he has class and gets J Mac, plus his latest run had merit. That was the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day where you can easily make a case to say he should have won but had little luck and nearly fell. If the breaks go his way, he can win.
3 Banker's Choice is getting towards D-Day. He comes through the Turnbull where he was outclassed on paper and ran accordingly when down the track behind Via Sistina. Good record at around this level and the form out of the Turnbull is elite. He can bounce back.
