AFL Round 21 continues on Saturday with four matches on the schedule. First up we head to Marvel Stadium where we have a ‘spoon off’ between North Melbourne and Richmond. There will be some keen eyes on this clash as the loser likely finishes the season on the bottom of the ladder and lands the #1 pick. We bring you our full preview and tips below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Richmond
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, August 3rd, Marvel Stadium
North Melbourne tried hard last weekend but simply came up against a classier and more mature side in the Cats who handed them a 40-point loss at Blundstone Arena (66-106). The Kangaroos never gave up but were beaten from wire to wire and lost all four quarters.
Still, there have been plenty of positive signs for fans of the Kangaroos since their mid-season bye. They’ve lost only two games by more than 20 points and have even added two victories.
Alistair Clarkson and his coaching staff have made three changes at selection this week, two of which were forced. Unfortunately, young gun George Wardlaw has been left out due to injury, although #2 pick Colby McKercher finally returns.
It’s been a bleak season for Tigers fans who were spoiled for a decent stretch of years not so long ago. Everyone expected a drop off in performance as they entered the first true year of their rebuild, although no one expected them to be this bad. The Tigers have won only once from their last 15 outings and most of their losses have been blowouts.
In positive news, the Tigers regain a number of key players for Saturday afternoon’s clash. Dustin Martin returns after missing the last few weeks, while Toby Nankervis and Jack Graham have also been passed fit to play.
Match Prediction: It’ll be interesting to see the motivation levels of these teams considering the #1 pick is potentially on the line. Of course, the Kangaroos were in a similar position this time last year when they defeated the Suns which saw them move off the bottom of the ladder and eventually miss out on Harley Reid.
That aside, the Kangaroos stack up a lot better than the Tigers in all of the key metrics over the past five weeks. The Tigers have been getting murdered from turnover with the opposition piling on an average of 67 points per game from turnovers across the past five, which is the worst in the competition.
On top of that, the Kangaroos have been a decent clearance side in recent weeks, ranking in the top eight for clearance differential, so if they can get the game played in their half and pressure the Tigers into turnovers exiting D50, they’ll be in great shape.
With all of that said, the Kangaroos, albeit without Wardlaw, look to be a decent bet to win this game, and I’m surprised to see them priced as the slight underdogs.
North Melbourne to Win
$2.02 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Colby McKercher 30+ Disposals – Absolute ball magnet that gets that juicy role as a rebounding defender. 30+ in four of his last six and should be right around that mark again here.
Harry Sheezel 1+ Goal – Has been hitting the scoreboard since splitting his time between midfield and half forward. He should get a couple of looks at goal against the Tigers.
Charlie Comben 1+ Goal – Returned to the forward line with Logue back in the team. He’s a high flyer and should be hitting the scoreboard again.
SGM Odds: $3.50 at BoomBet
