The UFC’s first pay-per-view of the year is here and it is a cracker. Islam Makhachev will attempt to defend his lightweight title against the fighter who arguably gave him the hardest fight of his UFC career, Arman Tsarukyan. In the co-main, Merab Dvalishvili meets the tough and undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. While Jiri Prochazka takes on Jamahal Hill in a Light Heavyweight title eliminator. We take a look at the best bets on the card below.
UFC 311 Betting Tips
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev continues to get better and better and that is bad news for Arman Tsarukyan. In the pair’s first fight Makhachev was just 5-1 but already touted as a future champion, largely due to the high praise from the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov. So when Tsarukyan took it to him and kept it close he earned high praise.
Since then, both men have improved greatly. But in my opinion, Makhachev has developed his game far more. Tsarukyan continues to put himself in dangerous positions on the ground, and I feel the champion's striking game is now better than that of the challenger. So that begs the question, what is Tsarukyan’s route to victory?
The one glaring weakness I still see in Makhachev’s game is the same as many wrestlers, when they are on their back they look like a fish out of water. This was perfectly shown when Alexander Volkanovski got him down.
So theoretically if Tsarukyan can lead the dance and land on top more times than not he can get his hand raised. But it is not that simple. Makhachev has strong hips and his distance management has been an area he has improved out of sight since the last time the pair fought. And I’d be shocked if this ends in anything but a clear Makhachev win.
Islam Makhachev to win
$1.30 (4 Units)
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
When I opened the market for the first time at the start of the year for this clash I had to check another betting agency that there wasn’t a mistake. Close to $4 has been floating around for the champion to hold onto his belt and that is mind-boggling.
Merab Dvalishvili won the title from Sean O’Malley in September and it was widely expected ‘Suga’ would get an immediate rematch. Instead, it was given to Umar Nurmagomedov who has been one of the most feared fighters in the division the past two years.
He is a perfect 18-0 in his professional career and his mixture of strong wrestling and devastating striking makes him a force on the feet and on the mat. Yet I expected this fight to be a pick 'em match and cannot fathom how Dvalishvili is such an outsider.
Nurmagomedov has never been taken down but there is a reason Merab earned the nickname ‘The Machine’. Personally, I cannot see how Nurmagomedov keeps him off him. Dvalishvili has shown throughout his career he is not deterred by being hit and will shoot at will all night long.
Nurmagomedov has also not beaten anyone of note, other than Cory Sandhagen, and this is a huge step up in competition. Unless Nurmagomedov can get the champ out of there early, I don’t see how he comes out on top after 25 minutes. Back Dvalishvili at juicy odds.
Merab Dvalishvili to win
$3.50 (3 Units)
Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano
Once again here I feel the oddsmakers have bought into hype over substance. Beneil Dariush in 2023 was one fight off a title shot and Renato Moicano while impressive has always been just another name in the Lightweight division.
Dariush has the ground game to smother the Brazilian and Moicano’s only route to victory is to test the ageing veteran’s often shaky chin. But he has never really had one punch knockout power and if he can’t crack him early, he will be dominated by Benny. Back Dariush to return to winning ways.
Beneil Dariush to win
$2.50 (3 Units)
