The UFC will head to Las Vegas, Nevada for the final pay-per-view card of the year this weekend. Headlining the card is a Flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and newcomer Kai Asakura, while in the co-main Shavkat Rakhmanov and Ian Garry both put their undefeated records on the line, with the winner set to get a title shot against Leon Edwards in 2025. Also on the card Ciryl Gane returns against veteran Alexander Volkov and Bryce Mitchell takes on jiu-jitsu sensation Kron Gracie. We take a look at my best bets on the card below.
UFC 310 Preview & Betting Tips
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura
The fight between Pantoja and Asakura was not meant to be the main event but after Belal Muhammad was forced to withdraw it was the one promoted to the headline act. Asakura is a relatively unknown quantity to many in the MMA world, with google search trends suggesting people want to know who he is and why he is getting a UFC title shot. In short, Asakura is making his UFC debut in a title fight and for a reason. He is a RIZIN champion who has made his name through many vicious knockouts, something Flyweights are not known for. With a win, Asakura would also become the first-ever Japanese UFC champion, something Dana White would love as the organisation continues to try and build its Asian market.
But can he win? It is a fight and anything can happen but it would be a shock on the tape I have watched if he beats Pantoja. Asakura has never gone five rounds and just three fights ago was comprehensively beaten by Hiromasa Ougikubo - a man who went on to lose three straight after that victory. A look further back shows the only UFC calibre fighter he has faced is Manel Kape, who knocked him out. So stranger things have happened but can he beat Pantoja? Unlikely.
If Asakura is to win it will almost certainly have to be by knockout and early. Pantoja controls pace well and should have no problems taking his Japanese foe to the ground and climbing onto his back. Asakura has some serious holes in his game when on the ground especially when transitioning, something I believe Pantoja can capitalise on. While Asakura has never been submitted, he has never faced someone of the calibre of Pantoja and I am backing the Brazilian to hand him his first submission defeat this weekend.
Alexandre Pantoja by submission
$3.30 (2 Units)
Dooho Choi vs. Nate Landwehr
We head to the first fight on the main card for my second bet on the UFC 310 card where there is plenty of value to be had in Choi. This fight should be fireworks with Lendwehr’s forward pressure style and Choi’s ability to crack.
Last time out Choi took the head off of Bill Algeo, someone I believe beats Landwehr nine times out of 10. ‘The Train’ is fun to watch but isn’t overly technical and still doesn’t get his head off the centre line. I expect Choi to batter him in the opening two rounds and if he doesn’t get him out of there in that time, can survive Landwehr's inevitable late surge.
Dooho Choi to win
$2.30 (3 Units)
Aljamain Sterling vs. Movsar Evloev
The Sterling disrespect by the betting markets is crazy to me. Sterling is a former champion and an all-rounded fighter with the ability to push a pace. Evloev was impressive beating Diego Lopez and Arnold Allen but his skills mirror Sterling’s and if anything, I believe the American does what the Russian does better.
Sterling comes into this fight on the back of a strong win over Calvin Kattar and if he can give Evloev his first loss he will almost certainly get his title shot at 145 pounds. If ‘Funk Master’ can keep the fight on the feet and pressure Evloev backwards he should be able to control the exchanges and get the win. Back the former champion at great odds.
Aljamain Sterling to win
$3.20 (2 Units)
