It is a fitting end to the NRL season that the two best teams in the competition will face off against one another in the decider. Season 2024 has been action packed, with exciting rugby league on display each week. The Storm and Panthers will aim to continue this trend and give rugby league fans the exhilarating decider that they crave. Their class compared to the rest of the competition was demonstrated last week, with both recording dominating victories over the other two sides in the Top 4.
All season long, Before You Bet has been here to take a detailed look at the action, and we hope to finish the season off by finding you a winner. Strap yourself in, this game promises to be a blockbuster encounter.
NRL Grand Final Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne storm vs Penrith Panthers
Accor Stadium, Sunday 6thOctober, 6:30pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm hosted the Roosters last week, in what could’ve been a danger game for them. Some were tipping an upset and after a first-play sinbin to Asofa-Solomona, there was a danger that the pressure could get to the home side. They absorbed this passage of play and took their chances when presented, heading into HT with a comfortable 22-6 lead. An early fightback for the Roosters mattered little, as the Storm continue to power past their opponents once they gained momentum. With 52% possession, they controlled the play well by completing at 87% which led to 9 line breaks. The ability of the key playmakers, of which there are many, to continually pressure the defensive line is a staple of their play. Their defence was just as impressive, limiting the Roosters to just 8m per carry and 3 line breaks, while also missing 27 tackles. It was a sign of the class that they possess.
The Panthers progressed in easier fashion, accounting for the Sharks 26-6. In a game which was always expected to be tight, the Panthers demonstrated patience and poise to wear down their opponents. When their chances came, they took them. Their dominance was evident in the 54% share of possession, and 79% completion rate. This was complimented by their 9.3m per carry, 628 PCM’s and 5 line breaks. They were even more damaging in defence, strangling the Sharks out of the match. Allowing just 1 line breaks and missing only 16 tackles highlights the foundation of this side.
Match Prediction
The loss of Asofa-Solomona for this contest will have a large impact on the result. His presence would allow the battle in the middle to play out. Without him, the Storm are forced to find another means of generating momentum in the middle. There are also several injury concerns which the Storm will have to overcome including niggling injuries to Hughes, Meaney and Grant. The Panthers also have Cleary to worry about; his fitness has been assured of for this match, as has that of his opponents. The intriguing naming of Schneider on the bench for the Panthers does suggest that there is still some concern about him getting through the match. It would be a catastrophic blow to their chances of winning if his shoulder, or another injury, were to occur. This is likely the reason why the Storm are slight favourites for this game ($1.85 vs $1.95).
The Panthers are striving to be the first team since the 1980’s to win 4 straight Premierships, a feat which is beyond most during the modern salary cap era. The Storm appear to have the best chance of any team recently to halt this achievement and are well placed here. Right-off the chances of the Panthers at your own peril though. They have proven each year that they have a determination which few can match.
Rather than pick a winner, the suggestion is to invest on this game being a close contest. The past 2 games, which have been won by the Storm, have been decided by 8 points or less; the past 5 results have seen an average margin of 16.4 points, with 3 13+ victories to the Panthers skewing the number. It would be surprising to see the same occur here. The Round 1 meeting was an 8-nil win for the Storm, and they backed it up with a 24-22 victory in Round 24; the Panthers will be out for revenge. They are the preferred selection in a head-to-head contest but in terms of finding a winner, this should be avoided.
Either Team by Less Than 8.5 Points
$2.00 (2 Units)
Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
Three of the past four Grand Finals have seen a centre score first, all wearing jersey number 4. For this game that is Meaney and Alamoti. Players in the outside backs (numbers 2-5) have scored first 8 times since 2011, fullbacks have scored twice with only 3 forward (9 – twice – and 12) crossing for the first try. For the season, the Panthers highest scorers have been Turuva (16), To’o (14), Edwards and Tago (both 10). The Storm have had Warbrick (15), Papenhuyzen (13), Katao (12) and Hughes (12) lead the way for their team. With the sweeping plays to either edge, combined with a dangerous kicking game from their halves, the outside backs are again a preferred option for each team.
Suggested Bet
Panthers
Best = Turuva $9.50 at Ladbrokes
Value = Tago $17 at Ladbrokes
Storm
Best = Coates $8.50 at Neds
Value = Howarth $21 at Neds
Total Match Points
The average total match points in Grand Finals since 2011 is 34. In the five times since 2011 when team’s 1stand 2nd have played, the average points margin is 34.6. The history between these two sides in 2023 suggests another low scoring affair. The average total points between these two sides in their past 5 matches is 35.6 points. All signs point towards this being a tight match with little chances given away.
Suggested Bet
Total Match Points Under 40.5 $1.90 at Ladbrokes
Margin
Just 5 times since 2011 has there been a winning margin of 13+ points, with the average sitting at 10.3. The average margin in games played between 1st and 2nd in the Grand Final is 7 points. It is highly unlikely to see a blowout in this game. If you like a team to win, you may want to increase the return in your investment by taking them by a 1-12 margin.
Clive Churchill Medal Winner
It is no surprise that the winner of the ‘Man of the Match’ usually comes from a player in the spine. Since 2011, halfbacks have saluted 5 times, fullbacks 3 times and 5/8’s winning twice. Interestingly, when not won by a player in the spine, lock (13) is the only other position to win, with the other 3 since 2011 awarded to these players. Considering the subjective nature of this award, it might be worth avoiding. If you do want to invest, no more than 0.5-1 units should be used.
Panthers
It is no surprise to see Cleary as favourite. While the success of his team doesn’t solely rest on his shoulders, it is essential that he has a high level of quality involvement in his team’s performance. In his absence this season, others have stepped up to the mark. This makes the likes of Edwards, Luai and Yeo suitable options for a value play. If the Panthers are to win this contest, expect their crafty halfback to leave his mark on this game.
Suggested Bet
Best = Cleary $4.50 at Dabble
Value = Luai $17 at Dabble
Storm
Just like the Panthers, the key man for the Storm will be wearing the number 7 on his back. Hughes won the Daily M award for a reason and, despite this, can often be overshadowed by Munster, Grant and Papenhuyzen. That leave plenty of value for other players to invest upon. Of the others, Grant appears to be the next best selection. His involvement, especially during the Finals series, has been one of the best from a hooker in recent memory
Suggested Bet
Best = Hughes $5 at Ladbrokes
Value = Grant $12 at Ladbrokes
Also, Picklebet are running some great promotions for the NRL Grand Final that are certainly worth checking out. Below are just some of the markets and odds they’re offering for Sunday’s clash. Click this link to head straight to the markets!
Fullbacks First: Edwards OR Papenhuyzen to score first try
Halfback Heroes: Cleary OR Hughes to score first try - $11
Sixes Up: Munster OR Luai to score first try - $14
Wingers Win: To'o OR Coates to score first try - $6
Forwards Charge: Katoa OR Martin to score first try - $13
