Another day of NFL over the Christmas Holiday season, as the NFL is putting on a triple header on Sunday morning for Australian viewers to continue a week of cracking games. Things kick off early in Boston, as the Patriots host the Chargers, before the Broncos take on the Bengals in Cincinnati in a game with huge playoff implications. We cap things off with an NFC West battle, which could see the LA Rams crowned NFC West champions with a win. What a day of football!
NFL 2024-25: Week 17 Sunday Triple Header
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Gillette Stadium, Sunday 29th November, 5:00am (AEDT)
The Chargers snapped a 7-game losing streak to the Patriots in week 13 last season, sneaking by the home side 6-0 in a dour affair. I’ll take nothing from this game and move on to the handicap.
The Chargers opened 6-point favourites on the look ahead and re-opened at 6/5.5. Since re-open, it has been all Patriots money, pushing this down to Chargers -4. The Chargers have been money all season as favourites of less than a touchdown, currently covering spreads in 7 of 9 games when lined in that bracket. I make the Chargers slightly higher than 4-point favourites, so if the number ever falls below 4, I will jump on the Chargers.
The total opened 41.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 42. It’s jumped slightly to 42.5, in a move I agree with. My fair total is 43.5, so I don’t see a tonne of value in the total here but would lean towards the over. The Patriots have been 6-3 to the over since Drake Maye took over as starting QB, whilst the Chargers have gone over in 5 of their last 7. Over is probably the play here, for a small outlay.
Looking at props, and I’ll trust rookie receiver Ladd McConkey to continue to be Justin Herbert’s favourite target this week. The Patriots have struggled all season defensively, and McConkey is a fantasy YAC receiver who should go over the 70 yards required to cash this one.
Prop Bet
Ladd McConkey (over) 71.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos
Paycor Stadium, Sunday 29th November, 8:30am (AEDT)
The Broncos and Bengals last met in week 15 of the 2021 regular season, with the Bengals sneaking home 15-10. Not much to take from this result then.
For this week, the Bengals opened 3-point favourites on the lookahead and re-opened at the same number after the week 16 games. The Bengals took early money, which pushed this to 3.5, however resistance came at 3.5 and Broncos got bet. The Bengals are now a heavily juiced 3-point home favourite, and I see some nice value in the Broncos here. If you can find a +3.5 at $1.90 or better, jump on board. At the moment, the only place close to that is Betfair ($1.88) but be ready to jump on if it hits $1.90.
As for the total, it opened 47.5, re-opened 48.5, and has been bet up to 49.5. The Bengals are a dead over team, and it’s hard to argue with the move towards 50. The weather puts me off betting the over, with rain anticipated in Cincinnati during the game. I can’t bet Bengals unders, so the total will have to be a pass.
Looking at props, and I’ll take Tee Higgins to have a big game this week. I expect Patrick Surtain to shadow Ja’Marr Chase for the most part, and if that’s the case Higgins should be fed. His receiving yard total is lined right around his average over the past month, and he should get enough targets to go over.
Prop Bet
Tee Higgins (over) 70.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Broncos +3
$2.00 (1.5 Units)
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
SoFi Stadium, Sunday 29th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
The Rams and Cardinals met back in week 2 of the 2024 NFL season, when the game closed as a pick em’ in Arizona, with a total of 47.5. It was all Arizona right from the get-go, as they lead 14-0 after one quarter, and 24-3 at the half. They eventually ran away with the win, spanking the Rams 41-10 on the back of Kyler Murray throwing for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns, James Conner rushing for 122 yards, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. catching four passes for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Spinning forward to this game, and the Rams were 3.5-point home favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at 5.5. Rams money continued into the market, with the spread touching 7 for a short time, before the buy-back happened at 7. The Rams currently sit as 6.5-point favourites, which is well north of my number for this game, however much like the Ravens preview which cashed, I like the Rams to win this by more than a touchdown. The Cardinals’ season is over, they are decimated by injuries on the offensive line, and with James Conner in doubt, I don’t know where the Cardinals get their points.
The total was 49.5 on the lookahead, before bouncing down to 49 at re-open. It has dropped further to 47.5 on the back of the news of both starting offensive tackles being out for the Cardinals, and the concern over Conner. I make a fair total 46, so there is still some meat on the bone to bet an under here in my opinion.
Onto the props, and I’ll back the alpha dog of the Rams offense, Puka Nacua, to go over his high receiving yards total. In games he has finished since coming back from injury, Nacua has averaged almost 11 targets per game and 116.5 yards per game. This is the highest he’s been lined all season, and I don’t care. Nacua to smash through the triple figures receiving yards again this week.
Prop Bet
Puka Nacua (100+) receiving yards - $2.40 at Dabble (1.5u)
Rams -6.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
