A rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship game has turned into a chance for the Lions to stamp their ticket to the number 1 seed in the NFC with a win this week over the 49ers. With the 49ers playing purely for pride, what will we see this week in the final Monday Night Football game of the regular season? Check out our thoughts and best bets below!
NFL Week 17 Betting Tips
San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions
Levi’s Stadium, Tuesday 31st December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The 49ers lost their second straight, and four of their last five, as they meekly went down to the Dolphins 29-17 on the road. The 49ers were the better team through the air, gaining an extra 98 yards and 2.2 yards per play more than their opponents, however lost the turnover battle 1-0 and managed to score only twice from their five trips to the redzone. It’s been a problem all season for the 49ers, and I don’t see it getting any better this week against the Lions, who allow the seventh-lowest percentage of redzone touchdowns conceded. George Kittle (106) and Deebo Samuel (96) lead the way for the 49ers receivers, whilst Brock Purdy was terrific between the 20’s, going 26-40 for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Lions were never in any danger last week against the Bears, accounting for their NFC North rivals 34-17 on the road. Jared Goff was at his efficient best, going 23-32 for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst Jameson Williams was electric, hauling in 5 passes for 143 yards, highlighted by and 82-yard touchdown where he ran right by his coverage. Jahmyr Gibbs did enough to show he can own this backfield, rushing for 109 yards on 23 carries.
Match Preview
The Lions and 49ers last met famously in the NFC Championship game last season, where the 49ers closed massive 7.5-point home favourites to the Lions. The Lions led 24-7 at halftime, before conceding 27 consecutive points in the second half to be down 34-24. A late Lions’ touchdown proved to be a consolation, as the Lions were made to lick their wounds after one of the biggest choke jobs in Championship weekend history.
This week, the Lions opened 3.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at the same number after the week 16 games. The number has flirted with 3 all week but is back at a flat 3.5 at the time of writing. I would love a 3 on the Lions, and if it ever gets there it will be a big bet, but at 3.5 I still see value in the Lions, who I make a 5-point favourite. Revenge will be at the forefront of the minds of the Lions here in my opinion, after a heartbreaking loss when they were on the cusp of making the Super Bowl last season. The 49ers season has been a horrible disappointment, and in their two games as underdogs this season, they have failed to cover on both occasions. Conversely, where the Lions have been away favourites, they have covered the spread in five of the six games.
Looking at the total, it has come down slightly from the opener of 51.5, to where we now sit at 50.5, below the key of 51. I would never bet a Lions under, despite my numbers saying a fair total is 48.5, and would lean heavily towards the over here. The Lions are 8-6-1 to the over, whilst the 49ers are 8-7 to the over.
Props wise, I would be looking heavily at several players from the Lions to go over, in particular Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs. But it will be the running back where I look to make my best bet here. The 49ers have been atrocious against the run this season, and Gibbs will be able to get this done on the ground and through the air. I think he will surpass 150 yards from scrimmage in this game, and if you like that you can take it at $3.10 at Bet365. I’ll go a little more conservate for the official play but will be having a tickle on 150+ myself.
Prop Bet
J Gibbs (125+) rushing and receiving yards - $1.84 at SlamBet (2u)
Lions -3.5
$1.93 (2 Units)
