Round 20 in NBL25 is the final round of the regular season and it gets underway on Wednesday night and concludes on Saturday night. There are six games in the round with double-headers on both Friday and Saturday. There’s still a lot of sorting out to do for playoff positions, so it should be a highly entertaining four days in the NBL.
We’re coming off our first losing weekend in quite some time as we went 3-4 for -2.85 units in Round 19. That takes us to 86-60 and +29.82 units for the season. Let’s bounce back in the last round before the playoffs!
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NBL25 Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Breakers vs Illawarra Hawks
Wednesday 5:30pm AEDT (Feb 5), Spark Arena
The New Zealand Breakers will close out a disappointing season when they face the Illawarra Hawks in the opening game of the final round. After a promising 7-3 start, the Breakers’ campaign unravelled, and they will finish second last with a 10-18 record. Injuries and inconsistency have plagued them throughout, and they will be without star guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright for this final game. The Breakers have struggled offensively and have been held under their current total points line (88.5 at Bet365) in five of their last six meetings with the Hawks. With little to play for, it remains to be seen if they can lift for their last home game.
The Hawks, meanwhile, enter this contest with everything on the line. Sitting at 18-9, they can secure top spot on the ladder and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs with a victory. They have built strong momentum, winning five of their last seven games, and have had the Breakers’ measure in recent meetings, winning both clashes this season and three straight overall. Their potent attack leads the league at 101.9 points per game, and their defensive discipline has been key to their success.
With top spot on the line, expect the Hawks to be fully engaged on both ends of the floor. Their ability to shut down the Breakers’ scoring has been a decisive factor in past encounters, and that trend should continue here. The Hawks should control this matchup and hold the Breakers under 88.5 points once again on their way to another victory.
Breakers Under 88.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Cairns Taipans vs Brisbane Bullets
Thursday 7:30pm AEDT (Feb 6), Cairns Convention Centre
The Taipans and Bullets face off in a game with no finals implications, as Brisbane is set to finish between seventh and eighth, while Cairns is locked into last place. Despite their struggles, the Taipans dominated the Bullets in their last meeting, securing a commanding 111-80 victory to claim the Summer Shootout title. That performance showcased Cairns’ ability to exploit Brisbane’s weaknesses, and they will look to replicate that effort at home.
A major factor in this matchup is the contrasting health of both rosters. The Taipans have a fully fit squad, with no players listed on the injury report, although Rob Edwards will not feature as he has departed the club early. In stark contrast, the Bullets have been plagued by injuries, with a league-high seven players currently sidelined. This lack of depth has contributed to their struggles in the latter part of the season, and it could be a decisive disadvantage in this contest.
Cairns has shown some resilience in the second half of the season, picking up four wins from their last eight games. Meanwhile, Brisbane has endured a disastrous stretch, losing eight of their last 11, though they did manage to pull off an upset win against the 36ers in their most recent outing. Despite that, the Taipans have the clear edge in terms of both talent and availability, and playing at home, they should be expected to secure another victory over the undermanned Bullets.
Taipans to Win
$1.80 (2 Units)
Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Kings
Friday 7:30pm AEDT (Feb 7), WIN Entertainment Centre
The final game of the regular season for both Illawarra and Sydney sees another chapter in the Freeway Series, with the Hawks looking to extend their dominance over their rivals. Illawarra has already locked up top spot and has won all three meetings against the Kings this season, as well as five in a row overall. However, all five victories have come by single-digit margins, highlighting how competitive these matchups have been. With Trey Kell and Mason Peatling both game-time decisions, the Hawks could be missing key contributors, which may influence their approach in what is ultimately a dead rubber for them.
Sydney, on the other hand, has plenty to play for. While both teams are already in the post-season, the Kings are pushing to secure the highest possible finish, with third place still within reach. With a healthy roster aside from a couple of long-term absentees, they will be keen to finally break their losing streak against the Hawks. Sydney has been competitive in each meeting this season but has fallen just short, so they will need to find a way to close out a tight game. Their defensive effort and ability to execute down the stretch will be key factors.
Given the circumstances, the Kings have the greater motivation, both in terms of ladder position and ending their struggles against Illawarra. With the Hawks potentially easing off the intensity ahead of the playoffs, Sydney looks like strong value to come away with the win.
Kings to Win
$2.52 (1.5 Units)
Perth Wildcats vs Adelaide 36ers
Friday 9:30pm AEDT (Feb 7), RAC Arena
Perth heads into this clash with plenty on the line, sitting third on the ladder with a 17-11 record and still an outside chance of finishing in the top two. A dominant win here, combined with a Melbourne United loss to the Phoenix on Saturday night, would see the Wildcats bypass the Play-In Tournament and go straight through to the semi-finals. Encouragingly, they have regained form at the right time, winning both games last weekend, including an impressive road victory over Sydney. Their offence has been firing, particularly against Adelaide, scoring 110+ points in all three meetings this season.
The 36ers, on the other hand, are in a much more secure position in sixth, holding a 13-15 record and sitting one win, plus a significant percentage gap, ahead of the JackJumpers in seventh. This means they are all but guaranteed a Play-In spot, though their recent form has been shaky. Consecutive losses last round, including a home defeat to an undermanned Brisbane side, highlight their inconsistency. Defence remains a major issue, and they will need a far stronger effort to contain a Wildcats team that has consistently exploited their defensive weaknesses this season.
With home-court advantage, superior form, and a dominant head-to-head record this season, Perth looks primed to complete the season sweep. However, Adelaide has the individual talent to lift against quality opposition, so it’s only a low-ish bet game.
Wildcats -5.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Tasmania JackJumpers vs Cairns Taipans
Saturday 5:30pm AEDT (Feb 8), MyState Bank Arena
The Tasmania JackJumpers and Cairns Taipans meet in a dead rubber to close out their NBL25 campaigns, with the JackJumpers locked into seventh place and the Taipans finishing last. Injuries have plagued both teams this season, but Cairns enters this clash at full strength, while Tasmania continues to battle personnel issues. The JackJumpers have endured a miserable run, dropping six straight games and eight of their last nine, struggling to find consistency on either end of the floor. In contrast, the Taipans have built late-season momentum, winning four of their last six, showing resilience despite their disappointing year.
Cairns will take confidence from their recent form, particularly the emergence of Taran Armstrong. The young guard is coming off a historic performance, recording the first triple-double of the NBL25 season with 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in his last outing. His all-around impact has been key in the Taipans’ resurgence, helping them play with more fluidity on offence. These sides have met twice this season, each defending their home court, though it has been over two months since their last encounter. Tasmania’s offensive struggles have been evident during their losing streak, failing to generate consistent scoring options.
With momentum on their side, the Taipans have a real opportunity to claim an away win and finish the season on a high. Tasmania will be desperate to snap their skid in front of their home fans, but given recent form, Cairns are well-placed to edge this contest in a minor upset.
Taipans to Win
$2.40 (1.5 Units)
Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix
Saturday 8:00pm AEDT (Feb 8), John Cain Arena
Melbourne United and South East Melbourne Phoenix square off in another thrilling edition of the Throwdown, with plenty riding on the result for United. Sitting second on the ladder, United must either win or lose by fewer than 17 points to lock in a top-two finish and secure a direct path to the semi-finals. Meanwhile, the Phoenix are locked into fourth place and will face the Kings in the Play-In Tournament next week. With both teams in strong form and a fiery rivalry between them, this contest is shaping up as a genuine 50-50 battle.
The Phoenix have had the edge in the season series, winning two of the three meetings, including both recent encounters. They have also been outstanding at John Cain Arena, winning 11 of their last 12 games at the venue. Under coach Josh King, the Phoenix have shown remarkable consistency, never losing consecutive games since he took over following their 0-5 start. They enter this clash in good touch, winning six of their last eight. Meanwhile, United have also built strong momentum, winning three in a row and five of their last six as they push for a crucial top-two finish.
With both teams firing ahead of the playoffs, this game is expected to go down to the wire. While United have extra motivation to ensure their finals pathway, the Phoenix’s ability to rise in big games makes them a serious threat. At $2.28 odds, they present solid value to take another Throwdown victory.
Phoenix to Win
$2.28 (1 Unit)
