The 2023-24 NBA Playoffs have been a wild ride filled with plenty of emotion, upsets, and otherworldly individual performances, however it all comes down to this – the NBA Finals! It’s the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks who have earned the right to battle it out for the NBA Championship this season and what a juicy matchup it is. Both teams are spearheaded by superstar duos surrounded by elite role players, making it one of the most intriguing matchups in recent memory.
We bring you our full NBA Finals Betting Preview below, complete with our best series and Finals MVP predictions. Also, be sure to head over to our NBA Tips page regularly as we’ll be providing best bets and Same Game Multi’s for each and every game of the NBA Finals!
2023-24 NBA Finals Predictions & Tips
Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks
NBA Finals Schedule
Game 1: Friday, June 7 at Boston, 10:30am AEST
Game 2: Monday, June 10 at Boston, 10:00am AEST
Game 3: Thursday, June 13 at Dallas, 10:30am AEST
Game 4: Saturday, June 15 at Dallas, 10:30am AEST
Game 5*: Tuesday, June 18 at Boston, 10:30am AEST
Game 6*: Friday, June 21 at Dallas, 10:30am AEST
Game 7*: Monday, June 24 at Boston, 10:00am AEST
*If required
Boston Celtics
Road to the Finals; def. Heat 4-1, Cavaliers 4-1, Pacers 4-0
Injury news: Kristaps Porzingis is the big watch. He hasn’t played since the opening round of the playoffs but looks close to a return. He’s returned to contact drills and is a high possibility to suit up in Game 1. Nothing else to report.
Overview: It’s been a near flawless campaign for the Celtics both in the regular season where they finished a league-best 64-18, and in the playoffs where they’re currently 12-2. However, they’re yet to be truly tested in these playoffs and have arguably had the easiest run to the finals in NBA history. Each of their three opponents en route to the finals were without their best player for at least two games during their matchup, so their dominance has hardly been surprising. A big plus for the Celtics is the pending return of Porzingis who averaged over 20ppg during the regular season. His return means the Celtics have elite spacing on offence with all five of their key guys being able to hit the three. On top of that, they get the boost of having a 7’3 guy protecting the paint.
Dallas Mavericks
Road to the Finals; def. Clippers 4-2, Thunder 4-2, Timberwolves 4-1
Injury news: Dereck Lively II missed Game 4 of the Conference Finals with a neck sprain but suited up in Game 5. He’s good to go for Friday’s clash. Nothing else to report.
Overview: The Mavericks entered the season as only a longshot to reach it to the NBA Finals, and they looked a long way off at the halfway point of the season where their record was barely over .500. However, some savvy moves at the trade deadline and a good run of health has seen them transform into a powerhouse in the NBA. Superstars Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have formed great chemistry and never seem to get in each other’s way on offence, which is a sign of their selflessness, desire to win, and great coaching from Jason Kidd and his support staff. Rookie Dereck Lively II has been a god send and is a legitimate lob threat, rim protector, and great playmaker out of the short roll, while PJ Washington was one of a couple of acquisitions at the trade deadline and has become a vital 3-and-D player. Most importantly, all Mavs players are on the same page and know exactly what’s expected of their role in the team.
Who Wins and Why?
Although the Celtics have an extremely talented roster with plenty of shotmakers, their chances of triumph still ride heavily on the performances of their two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum was horrible in the 2021-22 finals against the Warriors where he averaged 21.5 points on 36.7% shooting – well done on his productivity in the regular season, while Brown was marginally better with 23.5ppg on 43.1% FG. Will both men, particularly Tatum be better second time around, or will the pressure get to him once again?
On the other hand, the Mavericks have two superstars that can carry the offence, especially down the stretch when you need to go and get a tough bucket. Kyrie Irving is battle tested in the finals – having already lifted the Larry O’Brien alongside LeBron James as part of that famous 2015-16 Cavaliers team. Alongside him this time around is 25-year-old Luka Doncic who’s making his first finals appearance, but has been nothing short of phenomenal in big games/moments in both his career as well as this playoff run.
The bookies have priced the Celtics as the clear favourites ($1.35) to secure their first Championship since 2008, which you could argue makes sense considering their dominance throughout this entire season. However, that price is simply unbackable in my opinion, especially considering how badly they choked in 2022 when they were similarly priced favourites against the Warriors. Instead, I’m happy to side with the Mavericks at the underdog quote ($2.85) as I believe most of these games will come down to the wire, and I trust their two superstars far more to make the right plays in clutch moments. With that said, I’m expecting the Mavericks to win one of the first two games in Boston, which sets it up for them to win the series in six.
Series Prediction: Dallas Mavericks 4-2
Value: Dallas Mavericks 4-2 $6.50 (0.5 Units)
Dallas Mavericks - NBA Championship
$2.85 (2.5 Units)
Series Prop Bets
Finals MVP
Jayson Tatum is the odds-on favourite to win the Finals MVP. He’s currently $1.90 which is too short for my liking, although if you believe the Celtics will get the job done and he’ll lift to the occasion, then it’s a bet you could entice. However, I’d much rather have a flyer at the Jaylen Brown quote ($7) as he’s more than capable of being the Celtics’ best player across the series, which is what we recently saw in the Eastern Conference Finals, as well as in the 2021-22 Finals where he also outplayed Tatum. My best bet is a no-brainer for me. Luka Doncic is the best player in this series and if the Mavericks do indeed win the championship, he'll be the MVP.
Best Bet: Luka Doncic $3 at Dabble (1 Unit)
Value: Jaylen Brown $7 at Dabble (0.25 Units)
Most Points
This is my favourite bet of the Finals. Although Doncic is priced as odds-on to lead the series in scoring, I believe he should be even shorter. He was the regular season scoring champ for a reason and has led his team in scoring in all three series to date, as well as every other playoff series in his career. Porzingis coming back also means there’ll be more of a spread for the Celtics. In my opinion, the only way Doncic doesn’t score the most points here is because of injury.
Best Bet: Luka Doncic $1.82 at Dabble (5 Units)
Most Blocks
This is an interesting market. Daniel Gafford is the current favourite ($2.50) and Porzingis is not too far behind ($4). However, I like the odds on a couple of longer shots in Lively ($7) and Horford ($11). Lively is the preferred big for the Mavericks in tight games due to his superior decision making, and I can see him playing a bigger role than Gafford here, and he’s almost equally as solid protecting the rim. As for Horford, he’s more of a flyer if Porzingis can’t stay healthy. With Porzingis either out or on limited minutes, Horford will be the rim protector for the Celtics and he had 10 blocks in his last five games in that role.
Best Bet: Dereck Lively $7 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
Value: Al Horford $11 at Neds (0.25 Units)
Most Steals
Another fun market where there looks to be plenty of value about. Derrick white is my pick, particularly after his terrific defence in the Eastern Conference Finals. Jrue Holiday likely gets the matchup with Doncic, allowing White to be a help defender he can get in the lanes and make plays. White had five steals in the closeout game against the Pacers and looks to be the best value play in this market.
Best Bet: Derrick White $9 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
