Saturday night’s standalone fixture provides an interesting clash at the MCG. The Demons are in freefall with four losses in their last five games, while the Roos are full of confidence after a promising fortnight. Check out Jack Tobin’s full preview below!
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2024 AFL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs North Melbourne
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, June 22nd, MCG
Melbourne’s season is at a crisis point after losing four of their last five games, their last two games have been particularly bleak, with a 92 point defeat against Fremantle followed up by a 38 point loss on King’s Birthday. The Dees trailed for the entirety of the game and were behind by 46 points in the fourth quarter before kicking two consolation goals.
The defeat has Melbourne in 11th place on the ladder and to add insult to injury, Christian Petracca is out for the rest of the season after suffering broken ribs, a punctured lung and a ruptured spleen. Petracca has been the Demons best player this season and leaves a massive hole not only in the midfield, but his scoreboard impact.
North Melbourne backed up their first win of the season with a barnstorming first half performance, jumping out to a 48 point lead at half time against the reigning premiers. The Roos extended their lead to 54 points early in the third quarter, but conceded 12 goals to 3 after that moment to lose by one point in a heartbreaking loss.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (31 disposals), George Wardlaw (30 disposals) and Nick Larkey (4 goals) produced big performances early, however like their side they faded out in the second half.
The biggest positive for North Melbourne was their work in the front, kicking their highest score of the season with a remarkably accurate 19.4.118. The Roos hadn’t scored above 81 points in a game this year, a mark they passed before half time. Alistair Clarkson’s side will be looking to produce another performance of free flowing football, given Melbourne’s struggles to score.
On the other hand Melbourne will be looking to make this a slow, stoppage-fest slog which will suit their bigger bodied midfielders, and give time for their defence to set up behind the ball.
Match Prediction: This is a tough game given the form line of both sides trending in opposite directions. Melbourne should win this game and will be desperate to bounce back after a horror six weeks, however the line at -32.5 is a bit too risky given the Demons inefficiency in the front half.
Because of this, the total points market is where we’ll be looking in this clash. Seven of Melbourne’s last nine games have gone under the total points line of 170.5, and they’ve produced five scores of 76 or less in the last six weeks. North Melbourne are the third lowest scoring team in the AFL averaging just 70 points per game, even with an inflated score of 118 points last week. All roads lead to a low scoring encounter at the home of football.
Total Points Under 170.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals: Clayton Oliver was one of the few Demons to produce on King’s Birthday picking up 28 disposals. Oliver has averaged 25 disposals per game since Round 8, and has dominated the Roos in recent seasons. Oliver’s last five games against North have produced returns of 37, 45, 25, 31 and 33 disposals.
Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ Disposals: Luke Davies-Uniacke is beginning to put together a serious body of work over the last six weeks. LDU has had 35, 27, 35, 26 and 31 disposals in his last five games, and has recorded 27 disposals in each of his last two games against Melbourne.
Paul Curtis 2+ Goals: Paul Curtis is quietly emerging as one of the league’s best small/medium forwards in 2024. Curtis has kicked 19 goals this season, and has kicked multiple goals six times this season.
