Two night fixtures conclude Super Saturday in AFL Round 20 and one of those will be played at the home of footy between Melbourne and GWS in what’s a crucial fixture for both clubs and their finals aspirations. As always, we have you covered with a full preview, best bet, and Same Game Multi!
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2024 AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs GWS
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, July 27th, MCG
It’s just about getting to do-or-die for Melbourne after they recently suffered their sixth loss from their last 10 games. Despite being undermanned and on the road against the Dockers, fans of the blue-and-red would’ve been extremely disappointed with their side’s performance. They were obliterated all over the ground from the opening bounce, and the 116-66 scoreline flattered them in the end.
Thankfully, skipper Max Gawn has been cleared to return just two weeks after badly injuring his ankle. His presence and ruck craft was sorely missed last weekend, and even a Gawn at 70% would make a big difference. His inclusion is one of three changes for the Demons, with Christian Salem headlining the outs (injured).
In contrast, GWS have rediscovered some of their best form at a crucial stage in the season. The talented Giants went walkabouts for a while there, but have responded over the past three weeks with three wins. Most recently, the Giants took care of the Suns in emphatic fashion, dispatching them by 39 points at home (89-50).
In more great news for fans of the orange team, Sam Taylor has been given the all clear to return from a testicular injury. He’s missed the last couple of games although the Giants’ defence has managed to hold up well in his absence. The unlucky Isaac Cumming will make way after suffering yet another injury.
Match Prediction: The Demons recent performance against the Dockers was poor on a number of levels and with their system currently not holding up as they’d like, that spells danger against the Giants.
The Giants are the most efficient team in the competition when going inside 50, as they take marks at a league high 27% per inside 50 across both the season as a whole as well as over the past five games. This makes them arguably the worst team to play when coming off a game where the Demons structure was breaking down consistently.
On top of that, the Giants smalls have been going to work from a forward pressure perspective over the past five games – led by the likes of Jones, Daniels, and Greene – which is a key reason why they rank #4 in the competition for forward half scores this stretch. And considering the Demons were obliterated in clearance last weekend (14-0 at QT, 47-16 for the game) and are playing with a makeshift midfield again on Saturday, the ball will likely be living in the Giants’ forward half – this spells danger!
Considering these recent trends and at pretty much 50/50 odds, the Giants loom as a great bet to get the job done in an important Saturday night clash at the ‘G.
GWS to Win
$2.02 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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GWS to Win – For the reasons mentioned above.
Darcy Jones 1+ Goal – What an impact he’s made in his first season playing in the seniors. Remains solid value in the goal markets.
Tom Green 30+ Disposals – The Dockers mids had a fill-up last weekend and I expect similar for the Giants mids this weekend. Green is the most likely to stuff the stat sheet.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
