Round 7 concludes at the MCG as the Hawks look for back to back wins when they host the Swans. Sydney will be desperate to avoid another slip at the MCG and secure their spot in the top four. Jack Tobin has you covered with his tips and preview below!
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2024 AFL Round 7 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Sydney
Sunday 4:00pm AEST, 28th April, MCG
Sydney got back to their best after the bye with an emphatic second half performance setting up a 53 point win over Gold Coast. The Swans kicked 12 goals to 5 after half time, in a game they led from start to finish.
Hawthorn finally picked up their first win of the season, defeating the winless North Melbourne by 45 points. Although it’s difficult to take much stock out of a win against the Kangaroos, it was the first time Hawthorn had scored 100 points this season, after averaging just 63 points per game heading into Round 6 - the fewest in the competition.
The Hawks could have two key inclusions for this week’s clash, with Will Day and Mitch Lewis set to return from injury after being named in the extended squad. Sydney have named Peter Ladhams, Jacob Konstanty and Aaron Francis in their 26 man squad. Both sides have no confirmed omissions at the time of writing.
There’s plenty of clear discrepancies in Hawthorn’s statistical profile that the Swans will be able to expose on Sunday afternoon. The Swans average 101 points per game this season, the second most in the league heading into Round 7 and despite an improved performance last week, the Hawks rank 15th (72 points per game).
Sydney are ranked 5th for inside 50’s, 5th in tackles and 4th in clearances conceded. Hawthorn are ranked 17th in the AFL for clearances, and it looms as an area the Swans will get a major advantage in this clash.
Sydney obliterated Hawthorn to the tune of 81 points when these teams last faced each other, as the Swans bullied the young Hawks around the ball as they recorded a +15 advantage in contested possessions. The dominance in the contest led to a +16 inside 50 advantage, as the Swans converted 55.2% of their inside 50’s to scores.
The other big challenge for Hawthorn will be their ability to stop Sydney’s transition game led by Nick Blakey. Forward pressure hasn’t been a strong point for Sam Mitchell’s side who rank 15th for tackles, and 13th for tackles inside 50. If the Hawks can’t apply enough pressure on the Swans half backs, they’re going to leak scores.
Match Prediction: Given the Hawks have only one win this season against the worst side in the competition, it’s surprising the line is only -18.5 in this clash. Hawthorn’s five losses this season have come by an average margin of 34 points, and they’ve lost four of their last five games against the Swans. Sydney’s five wins in 2024 have all been by margins of at least 22 points, as they’ve found a way to put sides to the sword when they’ve got momentum.
Sydney’s last two games against the Hawks have resulted in wins by 81 and 41 points, and it’s difficult to see Hawthorn keeping this game close given what they’ve produced this season. Sydney got back to their best last weekend, and they will be far too strong in this clash.
Sydney -18.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Errol Gulden 25+ Disposals: Whilst not absolutely tearing the competition to shreds like he did last season, Errol Gulden is still having a quality season. Gulden is averaging 25 disposals per game, and has recorded 25 disposals in four of his last five games.
Isaac Heeney 25+ Disposals: Isaac Heeney’s move to midfield has paid major dividends, with the Swans star averaging 28 disposals per game in 2024. Heeney has recorded at least 26 disposals in all six games he’s played in this season, and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.
Joel Amartey Anytime Goalscorer: Amartey has stepped up since Lance Franklin’s retirement, providing a major target for the Swans this season. Armartey has kicked 11 goals this season, and has hit the scoreboard in five consecutive games.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goalscorer: Despite the Hawks struggling season, Dylan Moore has continued to be a steady commodity for Hawthorn. Moore has kicked eight goals in his last three games, including four against the Roos last week.
