The second of the preliminary finals on this weekend is a battle between Geelong and Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday night. It’s a juicy contest that the bookies have at almost an even money contest, so we’re here to offer our thoughts and betting tips for the clash!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL Finals as well as the 2024 AFLW season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Geelong vs Brisbane
MCG, Friday 21st September, 5:15pm (AEST)
Weather: 17 degrees, cloudy, moderate winds
Odds: Geelong ($1.74) vs Brisbane ($2.10)
Line: Geelong -3.5
Points: 170.5
Geelong have continued to exceed expectations in 2024 and now find themselves with a home preliminary final. They utterly destroyed the Power in week one of the finals despite being sizeable underdogs, eventually coming away 84-point victors.
There were a number of Cats that starred in the win including Max Holmes, Shaun Mannagh, Zac Guthrie, and Jeremy Cameron who all had plenty of the ball. Their key defenders also played superbly to keep both Charlie Dixon and Esava Ratugolea goalless.
The Cats earned the week off and that’s allowed for some of their sorer bodies to freshen up. Tom Stewart was nursing a hamstring injury as well as illness prior to the Power match and was a late out, but with extra time to recover he’s not fit and ready to go. In other selection news, Zach Tuohy has been left out of the team, as has Tom Hawkins.
Elsewhere, Brisbane looked dead and buried when they trailed by seven goals half way through the third quarter, but showed their fighting spirit as they stormed home to steal a five-point win and make it to yet another preliminary final.
Joe Daniher was the hero with a couple of clutch fourth quarter goals, one of which was a miraculous kick from the boundary. Lachie Neale was well held and only finished with 19 disposals, but the likes of Jarrod Berry and Will Ashcroft more than made up for it.
The Lions have had better luck with health in the second half of the season which is a big reason why they’ve found some of their best form. Unsurprisingly, they remained unchanged from the team that downed the Giants.
Match Prediction: These clubs only met once during the home and away season and that came back in April (Round 6) in Brisbane where the Cats came away 63-37 winners. That was the Cats third win from their last four matches against the Lions. On top of that, they’ve won 15 straight home games in this matchup.
The Lions are clearly dangerous and are in great form, but the way the Cats tore the Power apart without Stewart was extremely impressive. Chris Scott is nothing short of a mastermind and with an extra week off to prepare, coupled with their immense home record in this matchup, I have to lean towards the Cats in this one.
Geelong -3.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Stengle & Lohmann 2+ Goals Each: Both players have been in sizzling form in recent games. Stengle has kicked 2, 2, 4 in this last three games while Lohmann has jagged 2, 3, 2, 2 in his last four. Getting near $5 odds for this current trend to continue is solid value in a tricky game.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
