Sunday football kicks off at Marvel Stadium with the Bombers looking to end a two game losing streak when they host West Coast. Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview and best bets below!
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2024 AFL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Essendon vs West Coast
Sunday 1:00pm AEST, June 23rd, Marvel Stadium
The bye came at a perfect time for Essendon after a strong start to season 2024. The Bombers come into Round 15 in fourth position on the ladder after losses to Gold Coast and Carlton before the bye. Essendon head into the second half of the season with their injury list shortening, with Mason Redman, Xavier Duursma and Sam Draper all set to return to the side on Sunday.
West Coast return from the bye with mixed news on the availability front, Oscar Allen is in for his first game of the season however Tim Kelly and Dom Sheed are out and Harley Reid won’t play due to suspension.
After building some positive momentum between Round 5-10, the Eagles had a poor three weeks leading into the bye. They were smashed by 99 points against Adelaide, lost at home against a struggling St Kilda side and handed North Melbourne their first win of the season in Round 13.
Many are expecting a fade out in the second half of the season from Essendon after consecutive losses, however this Essendon side is different from previous seasons. Even in the losses to Carlton and Gold Coast, the Bombers had periods of the game they were well on top. Against the Suns Essendon won the inside 50, clearance and contested possession count, while against the Blues they recorded +35 disposals and +19 inside 50’s.
If the Bombers can fix up their efficiency going inside 50, their game will be in good stead. They’re generating opportunities, it’s simply about converting those chances. Essendon have kicked 9.16 and 11.14 from their last two games, having more scoring shots than their opponents.
Match Prediction: Essendon have dominated possession this season ranking second in the competition for disposals, an area West Coast ranks dead last in. This possession dominance has allowed the Bombers to generate an abundance of inside 50’s, ranking third in the AFL and if they can fix up their efficiency it’s going to be a tough afternoon for West Coast.
The Eagles have struggled to be competitive away from home, holding an 0-6 record in games outside of Perth this season with an average losing margin of 59 points. Their two trips to Marvel Stadium this season have resulted in 76 and 66 point losses, and although it’s likely this fixture will be closer than that, the Eagles won’t have enough to top the Bombers. Essendon only have one win this season over 39 points, so the Bombers 1-39 is where we’re heading in this clash.
Essendon 1-39
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
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Nic Martin 30+ Disposals: Nic Martin is having a remarkably consistent season averaging 29.8 disposals per game. Over being overlooked by the Eagles in multiple drafts and sign-on periods, Martin has made a habit of playing well against them, with two 30+ disposal performances in his last three games against West Coast.
Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals: Merrett will be eager to bounce back from a quiet offensive performance by his lofty standards against Carlton where he recorded just 21 disposals. The Essendon skipper has recorded at least 25 disposals in 10 of his 13 games this season, including 29 disposals against the Eagles in round 8.
Elliot Yeo 20+ Disposals: Elliot Yeo is beginning to find his feet after returning from injury, picking up 27 and 23 disposals in his last two games. The Eagles veteran is averaging 23 disposals per game this season and with Kelly, Sheed and Reid out, he should find plenty of the footy.
SGM Odds: $4.33 at BoomBet
