Super Saturday in the NRL kicks off with two teams with the slightest of chances to make the top 8, as the Canberra Raiders head to Kogarah to take on the St George Illawarra Dragons. With both teams only a chance at the top 8 with a win and a draw in the Knights/Dolphins game, it’s highly likely that they are both playing for pride in this one. Off come the shackles, this could be a track meet!
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
And don't forget to head to our NRL tips page for previews of all of the NRL and NRLW matches this weekend!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Saturday 7th September, 3:00pm (AEST)
The Dragons were horrible last weekend, and it appeared to be the final straw, as Head Coach Shane Flanagan was seen tearing strips off halfback Ben Hunt in the sheds after the game. It was a tight opening 20 minutes, with the Eels leading 10-6, however five tries in an 18-minute period either side of half-time had the visitors reeling, eventually being down 44-12 with just 10 minutes remaining. The Dragons piled on five unanswered tries in the final 10 minutes to get within four, but it wasn’t enough, and it seems as though the players have given up on the season, with three losses in their past four games.
As for the Raiders, they continued their fine form to end the season, sneaking by the Roosters 14-12 on Sunday afternoon at Allianz Stadium. It was a tremendous defensive performance from the Raiders, as the Roosters had all the ball in the second half but couldn’t manage to get the winning try. With only 40% of possession, the Raiders missed a whopping 57 tackles, made 8 errors, conceded 12 penalties, and had two players sin-binned, and still managed to beat one of the best teams in the competition. This, a week after beating the Panthers in round 25, has the Raiders playing their best defensive football of the season at the very end.
Match Preview
These teams last met back in round 19 last season, as the Raiders travelled to WIN Stadium as 11.5-point favourites, running out 36-26 winners. The Dragons were without Ben Hunt due to Origin, whilst the Raiders were missing Josh Papali’i. The Dragons had the better stats across the board, however, couldn’t manage to hold the Raiders attack, allowing the Raiders to jump out to a quick 18-0 lead that they weren’t able to run down.
Fast forward over 12 months, and the Dragons opened as 3.5-point favourites for the round 27 clash, with the number staying at 3.5 all week. I make the Dragons a 3.5-point favourite by numbers also, however I lean towards the Raiders in this one, and if a 4.5 ever popped I would bet it in a heartbeat. However, with the spread being so close to my number, I’ll pass it for now, with my favourite bet being the Raiders to win the game outright.
The total opened at 50.5 and has bounced up slightly to 51.5. My fair total is just 48.5 by my numbers, however I love the way this game sets up for an over. The weather is expected to be fine, and both these teams will surely be throwing everything they have at this game in attack. The Raiders defence has stood up for two straight weeks, and whilst it could happen again, I believe both these teams are going to be firing every round they have in attack, whilst playing selective defence. Give me the over.
Over 51.5 points
$1.90 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
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Raiders to win – As above, I like the Raiders to cause the upset here in the final round. In better form, and the Dragons look like a side that has imploded.
H Young (1+ try) – Young is one of the most dangerous back rowers in the competition, and in a game, I’m predicting to have plenty of points, I love the addition of Young to your SGM.
Z Lomax (1+ try) – 14 tries in 20 games this season, I expect Lomax to sign off in style in his final game for the Dragons.
X Savage (1+ try) – Savage has turned into a very good first grade winger this season, scoring 14 tries. As good a chance as anyone in this game to bag a try.n.
Combined Odds: $10 at Boombet
