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2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Collingwood vs Carlton
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, 3rd August, MCG
Scott Pendlebury’s 400th game will rightfully take the majority of the spotlight, however this is a season defining clash for both Collingwood and Carlton. Carlton have lost three of their last four games and are now only one game ahead of ninth place on the ladder. Collingwood ended their four game losing streak with a 26 point win over Richmond, moving them within one game of the top eight.
After a lacklustre first quarter against Port Adelaide, Carlton kicked seven goals in the second quarter to lead by 31 points late in the second quarter. However the Blues kicked only one goal for the remainder of the match as they capitulated in the second half to lose by 14 points.
Carlton’s 9.11.65 was their equal second lowest score of the year, after averaging 113 points per game in their five games prior to last week. Harry McKay and Jack Martin’s inclusions come at a much needed time for Carlton, who had no avenue to goal outside of Charlie Curnow last week.
Nick Diacos was the star of the show with 42 disposals and 11 clearances as Collingwood led from start to finish against Richmond. The Magpies midfield lifted after a poor fortnight winning contested possessions +12 and clearances +10.
Carlton head into this week with a near full strength side with Blake Acres and Jordan Boyd joining McKay and Martin as inclusions, while Jordan De Goey and Beau McCreery headline Collingwood’s ins for this week.
Nick Daicos was the hero with the match winning goal in Round 8 when these sides last met, however Collingwood produced a dominant territory performance that was reminiscent of their Premiership winning side in 2023. Despite having 32 less disposals, 16 fewer contested possessions and 16 less marks than the Blues, Collingwood recorded +34 tackles and +26 inside 50’s to grind out a famous victory.
Match Prediction: Both sides have had vastly different seasons from that point with Carlton going 7-4 and Collingwood going 5-5-1. Despite their recent struggles, Carlton’s scoring profile still stacks up as one of the best in the competition. The Blues are ranked second for scores from turnover, third for scores from stoppages, third for scores from defensive half, third for scores from forward half and third for scores from centre bounce.
Collingwood have had Carlton’s number winning four of their last five games against the Blues, however if you look at what these two sides have produced over the last few months, Carlton should win this game especially given how their forward line at full strength matches up against Colingwood’s defence. One thing that is for sure is that this game won’t be a blowout. The last fifteen games between these two sides have been decided by less than 40 points, so the Blues in the 1-39 is where we’ll be going in this matchup.
Carlton 1-39
$2.15 (2 Units)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Nick Daicos has had an elite season, recording 30+ disposals in 13 of his 19 games in 2024. The superstar loves playing the arch rival, averaging 29 disposals per game across his last three games against the Blues, including a 32 disposal performance the last time he played Carlton.
Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: The Carlton skipper continues to produce strong performances despite his side's struggles over the last month. Cripps has recorded six straight games of 25 or more disposals, and will have a great matchup against a small Collingwood midfield.
Charlie Curnow 3+ Goals: The reigning two time Coleman Medalist hasn’t struggled to hit the scoreboard despite Carlton’s form across the last month. Curnow has kicked 3, 4 and 3 goals across his last three games, and has had 20 scoring shots across those three games. Curnow has kicked 3+ goals in 12 of his 19 games in 2024.
