AFL Round 20 begins on Friday night with a tasty matchup between Carlton and Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium. Both clubs are in desperate need of the four points to boost their respective top 4 and top 8 hopes, which should make for an entertaining couple of hours of footy. We bring you our full match preview and betting tips below!
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2024 AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Friday 7:40pm AEST, July 26th, Marvel Stadium
Carlton managed to snap their two-game losing streak last weekend when they overcame the plucky Kangaroos by 19 points under the Marvel roof (107-88). The match was won in the third quarter when Coleman Medal leader Charlie Curnow caught fire, as the Blues put up a whopping 47 points for the term.
Unfortunately for the Blues, there were a number of casualties from their recent outing. Star ruckman Tom De Koning suffered both a fractured foot as well as a punctured lung in the win and is set to miss the rest of the regular season. Wingman Blake Acres also pulled up sore and has been left out of the team for Friday night. There is some good news on the injury front, with Mitch McGovern set to return after missing the last couple of weeks.
Port Adelaide were also last start winners as they took down the lowly Tigers by 41 points at Adelaide Oval (116-75). It wasn’t a pretty match but in the end the Power’s class was able to shine through after being tested for the first three quarters. The Power have now won three of their last four games but have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way.
Ken Hinkley and his coaching staff have opted to make a pair of changes ahead of Friday night’s match. Forward Ollie Lord and defender Dylan Williams have both been omitted, while Kane Farrell and the versatile Lachie Jones have been called upon.
Match Prediction: Simply put, I don’t like this matchup for the Power. Their weaknesses feed right into the Blues’ strengths in a number of areas, and we’ve seen it play out in their meetings over the past three years where the Blues are 3-0.
The Blues rank #2 in the competition for scores off turnover for the season and #1 over the past five games, while the Power rank #11 for scores conceded from turnover for the season and #13 over their past five outings. The Power love to target the corridor out of defence and as we all know there’s a lot of risk involved in that approach. And as a general rule, when the Blues lock the ball in their forward half they generally generate a score, ranking #2 in the competition for scores from their forward half – this makes the Power’s bold kicks from their defensive 50 even riskier.
In saying all of that, the Blues haven’t been in great form in recent weeks, so there’s a chance the Power stay in touch and make this a close battle. This leads me to believe taking the Blues in the 1-39 range offers the most value.
Carlton 1-39
$2.20 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Carlton to Win – For the reasons mentioned above.
Matt Owies 2+ Goals – Nine goals in his last four games when not starting as the sub. The Power concede plenty of scores on turnover and there’s not many better at getting out the back than Owies.
Patrick Cripps 1+ Goal – Tore the Power to shreds in a terrific 4th quarter performance last time they met which included two goals. He remains solid value to hit the scoreboard again on Friday night.
SGM Odds: $3.75 at QuestBet
