Sunday football kicks off with a virtual elimination final as the Blues and Hawks go head to head at the MCG! Can the Hawthorn keep their season alive? Or will Carlton consolidate their spot in the top eight?
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2024 AFL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, 11th August, MCG
With Carlton and Hawthorn having favourable games in the final fortnight of the season, this weekend’s battle of eighth versus tenth will likely be Hawthorn’s last chance to leapfrog a vulnerable Carlton. The Blues are two points ahead of ninth placed Essendon and four points ahead of the Hawks and Pies who occupy tenth and eleventh place on the ladder.
Carlton find themselves in this precarious position thanks to a heartbreaking three point loss against Collingwood, with Mitch McGovern missing a shot after the siren that would have had the Blues in the top four. Although McGovern had the chance to win the game, the result was at the fault of Carlton’s poor play across the opening three quarters.
The Blues opened the game eight behinds failing to capitalise on their early dominance in general play, before conceding 9 goals to 5 across the second and third quarters to trail by 25 points at three quarter time. Carlton stormed home with the last five goals, but it wasn’t enough.
The Hawks had similar heartbreak, as they saw a 28 point lead mowed down by GWS as they lost by two points. Hawthorn conceded seven goals to two in the final quarter as Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene kicked two goals each in the final quarter.
The major concern for Sam Mitchell’s side heading into this weekend is the matchups of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. Jesse Hogan (5 goals), Taylor Walker (3) and Jeremy Cameron (4) have all got a hold of the Hawks in recent weeks which makes the prospect of coming up against two of the top five goalkickers in the competition frightening.
Carlton are the highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 97 points per game but they have fallen away over the last five weeks. The Blues are 1-4 in their last five games averaging 88 points per game, in the five games preceding that period between Rounds 11-16 Carlton went 5-0 and averaged 114 points per game.
Against an inexperienced and undersized defence, it provides a big opportunity for Carlton to bounce back and get their attacking game in shape. The Blues rank second for scores from stoppages, second for scores from turnovers, second for scores from forward half and third for scores from centre bounces. It’s a balanced scoring profile that should hold them in good stead.
Match Prediction: With their top eight position on the line this week, you can expect a big response from the Blues against a young Hawthorn side that hasn’t played in big games like this so far. The big game experience will hold the Blues in good stead, and it’s difficult to see Hawthorn containing McKay and Curnow.
Carlton have won the last three meetings between the two sides, including a 60 point win the last time they faced off. Although Hawthorn have been very good over the last twelve weeks, the Blues provide them matchup difficulties that they haven’t really faced with their size in the midfield and their power up forward. Carlton’s scoring power will be too much for the Hawks, and Michael Voss’ side will solidify their place in the top eight.
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Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals: The Carlton skipper was easily the Blues best player last week with 30 disposals, as he tried to will his side over the line. Cripps is averaging 32 disposals per game over his last seven games, and will be a nightmare for the young Hawks midfield to contain.
Charlie Curnow 2+ Goals: The reigning two time Coleman Medalist had his 66 game streak of kicking at least one goal broken last week, and will be looking to bounce back. Curnow had kicked multiple goals in three straight games prior to Round 21, and has kicked 3 goals in each of his last two games against Hawthorn, who have struggled containing key forwards this year.
Jack Ginnivan Anytime Goalscorer: Ginnivan has been remarkably consistent in his first season as a Hawk, kicking 21 goals from 18 games. Ginnivan has hit the scoreboard in 14 of his 18 games this season, and has a great record of producing in big games.
SGM Odds: $3.30 at BoomBet
