The Sydney Thunder sit just inside the top five on the BBL12 ladder, but they will have to negotiate a final-round clash with the Melbourne Stars to ensure finals qualification.
The Stars have had a season to forget and will finish in last place in BBL12. Can they restore some pride with a win on Wednesday?
Josh Nevett provides his full match preview and BBL12 betting tips below.
BBL12 Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Thunder Betting Tips
MCG, Wednesday 25th January, 7:15pm (AEDT)
Melbourne Stars
Predicted XI: Joe Clarke, Tom Rogers, Campbell Kellaway, Hilton Cartwright, Marcus Stoinis, Beau Webster, Nick Larkin, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Luke Wood, Liam Hatcher, Adam Zampa
What a terrible campaign the Stars have had.
The green side of Melbourne has managed just three wins from 13 games, and none in their last three games.
It was always going to be a tough campaign once Maxwell and Stoinis went down injured, but few would have thought that the Stars would fare this poorly.
Surprisingly, Melbourne actually have two of the best individual performers of the season – Joe Clarke is #5 in the run scorer rankings with 377 at an average of 31, while Wood is the fifth-highest wicket-taker with 19.
However, the Stars have lacked composure in the key moments and lost several games by a narrow margin.
Looking ahead to this game, I expect Melbourne to experiment with their line-up. Kellaway should get another crack at the top of the order, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of the fringe players named.
Regardless of the result on Wednesday, BBL12 has been a season to forget for the Stars.
Sydney Thunder
Predicted XI: David Warner, Matthew Gilkes, Blake Nikitaras, Ollie Davies, Alex Ross, Daniel Sams, Ben Cutting, Nathan McAndrew, Chris Green, Gurinder Sandhu, Usman Qadir
The Thunder may be fifth, but they have lost four of their last five games.
Plenty of deficiencies were exposed on Saturday night, as the Sixers demolished the Thunder by 125 runs.
As such, Sydney are no certainty to win this game. In fact, they are far from it.
Unlike international teammate Steve Smith, David Warner has failed to fire since returning to the BBL, and outside of Ollie Davies, none of the Thunder batsmen have shown consistency in recent times.
More will also be required from fringe players Nikitaras and Cutting, who will play key roles in this game and beyond.
The Thunder have their destiny in their own hands, so it will be interesting to see if they come to play at the MCG.
Match Prediction
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Stars on Wednesday. Wholesale changes may be made to the XI, and even if they aren’t it’s hard to know how motivated the players will be.
The Thunder are also difficult to trust in their current form, but with finals on the line, they will be full of fire.
Muddying the waters further, the Stars have won their last three games against the Thunder at the MCG.
I actually think Melbourne have the talent to cause an upset here if they play their best XI, but without knowing the final XI it’s safer to put my faith in the Thunder.
Sydney Thunder to win
$1.66 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
Sams is Sydney’s X-Factor. While has had an up-and-down season, and played underdone recently, I believe he will bring his best of Wednesday as the Thunder push for finals qualification.
Hatcher has been one of the bright lights for the Stars this campaign, taking regular wickets since becoming a regular starter. As we can see in our BBL12 Data Tools, the tearaway quick has taken 2+ wickets in five of his last six matches, so one pole isn’t a big ask.
The Stars have had the highest opening partnership in each of their last four matches. Melbourne come up against the out of form Warner-Gilkes combination on Wednesday, so I expect them to do it again.
Player to Take 1+ Wickets – Daniel Sams
Player to Take 1+ Wickets – Liam Hatcher
Highest Opening Partnership – Melbourne Stars
