It’s that time of year again – the best tennis players in the world descend on Melbourne Park for the first grand slam of the year: the Australian Open.
Ace is here with his quarter by quarter previews of both the men’ and women’s action.
We have a group of key names at the top of each market, but let’s take a look at the quarter by quarter draw.
2024 Australian Open Preview & Betting Tips
WTA - Quarter 1
On names alone, this may be the most brutal four names to kick off a draw in recent time in the WTA. We have Iga Swiatek taking on former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in round 1, with the winner to face the winner of Danielle Collins and Angelique Kerber. Normally the top seed will have a bit of time to play themselves into a bit of form, but that won’t be the case for Swiatek. She should still be too strong, early, however it will be interesting to watch. The other top seed in this section is Marketa Vondrousova, who also has a tricky first round against qualifier Dayana Yastremska. There are a couple of interesting names in the middle of this section, with the likes of Emma Navarro, Victoria Azarenka, Veronika Kudermetova and Jelena Ostapenko in this section. Swiatek won’t want to see the likes of Ostapenko across the net after what happened at the US Open…
I’m not keen on the Swiatek quarter price, but I’ll have something small on her on the outright below. In terms of the quarters, Victoria Azarenka looked solid in Brisbane, and has shown strong form in the past here as a former champion. Azarenka to win the quarter at $15 is worth a small stake, however she does have a danger game first up with Giorgi.
Victoria Azarenka Quarter 1 Winner
$15 (0.15 Units)
WTA - Quarter 2
This section looks to be a bit of fun. At the top we have 2023 Australian Open runner-up Elena Rybakina, who is the clear favourite of this quarter. I wouldn’t be too worried about the one-sided loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova in Adelaide. The last two times Rybakina has lost in straight sets the week before a grand slam, she ended up runner up at the Australian Open in 2023 and won Wimbledon in 2022. It’s going to be a fascinating first match against KarolinaPliskova. The second favourite and other top seed in this section is Jessica Pegula, who has looked a little below her best to start the season. It will change at some stage in her career, but Pegula lacks the form in the back end of a grand slam to be getting too excited about at the moment. A player that has caught my eye in the quarter winner market is Qinwen Zheng, who is the third favourite and has all the tools to be a genuine threat against the majority of match-ups. She can be prone to a high unforced error rate at times, but she does have all the tools necessary to challenge.
Of the rest, it’s hard to confidently back the likes of Emma Raducanu here, given she has played such little tennis in the last 12 months. Daria Kasatkina is another tricky prospect, as she can certainly make a run, though she can find herself at the mercy of the opposition at times for lacking power behind her serve. Looking at the draw, there are a lot of possibilities amongst the likes of Sorana Cirstea, Anna Kalinskaya, Sloane Stephens and Lin Zhu, though there is no one standout amongst the bunch.
Happy to just make a play on Qinwen Zheng to win the quarter here at what looks to be a decent price.
Zheng Quarter 2 Winner
$7 (0.4 Units)
WTA - Quarter 3
Coco Gauff sits at the top of the market here, and rightly so. Looking through the list of players in this quarter, Gauff should be able to manage most, if not all of them, with a level somewhat near her best. I’d almost be most worried in a potential match-up with Elise Mertens in her current form, though the Belgian would be a nice head to head price were that to ever eventuate. Naomi Osaka is second favourite here, but with such little tennis under her belt since her return, I am happy to simply watch on and see how she goes, especially with that fascinating round 1 match with Caroline Garcia.
Maria Sakkari and Caroline Wozniacki are capable of a solid showing, but their odds look about right.
Keeping it simple here with a small play on Gauff in the quarter, and I will back her in the outright markets as well.
Coco Gauff Quarter 3 Winner
$2.05 (0.5 Units)
WTA - Quarter 4
Defending champion Aryna Sabelenka is a raging favourite in this quarter, and justifiably so. This isn’t the strongest of all of the quarters, and looking at the early stages of this draw, I will be keeping her pretty safe. Next on the list is Ons Jabeur, who is coming in here off pretty limited form having not played tennis since the finals last year, however that may work to her advantage here, having come to Melbourne injured last year. It’s hard to make a case for Barbora Krejcikova on current form, though her grand slam pedigree commands respect, and the next few on the list including Samsonova/Alexandrova/Anisimova/Badosa, and even Pavlyuchenkova and Vekic are capable of challenging top players on their day.
It's worth noting that Mirra Andreeva isn’t featuring as a name in the market at some books, but she will be a threat to your potential selections if she brings a level near her best.
Happy to avoid this quarter. Sabalenka’s early draw is comfortable, but it’ll ramp up come the 4th round with some tricky potential obstacles.
TIP: No Bet
Summary
Such is the case with many WTA grand slam draws in recent years, it is incredibly wide open. There are many streaky players that although they may not win the tournament with seven strong performances, they are capable of flipping the tournament on its head. You only need to look at Jelena Ostapenko at the US Open last year. She defeated Iga Swiatek, which opened up the draw significantly for Coco Gauff, who took full advantage.
I will start the tournament with a small outright on Swiatek, as well as my other quarter winner bets in Gauff, Zhengand Azarenka. I like Gauff’s current odds the most.
Please Note: I have previously previewed and backed Gauff and Swiatek in the outright market in early December, at odds very similar to what are currently listed. Do not double up if you have already followed that advice.
Also Backing:
0.3 units Iga Swiatek to win outright at $3.55 at Betfair
0.25 units Qinwen Zheng to win outright at $40 at Betfair
0.1 units Victoria Azarenka to win outright at $140 at Betfair
Coco Gauff to win outright
$7.40 (0.35 Units)
ATP – Quarter 1
I can dress this up and make it as pretty as possible, though it is hard to make a strong case around anyone in this quarter that isn’t Novak Djokovic. If you like Novak, it’s probably a case of taking the outright, though $2 for 2 weeks of tennis, even with the potential injury concern, is short. Stefanos Tsitsipas is coming in with some question marks around his fitness, and Ben Shelton has the grand slam form in the last 12 months on hardcourt, but has lacked the consistency to become too interested in his pricing. Of the rest, Taylor Fritz is maybe to only price that causes me to raise my eyebrows slightly, but it might be a case of taking Novak in the outright, or leaving this quarter alone and looking elsewhere.
TIP: No Bet
ATP - Quarter 2
This quarter is absolutely dominated in the market by Jannik Sinner. He is the clear favourite, but is his pricing absolutely justified? I’d be keener to oppose him if the weather forecast was looking a little warmer, but $2 odds to win the quarter when he is likely to face a player such as Frances Tiafoe or Karen Khachanov in the 4th round and Alex De Minaur or Andrey Rublev in the quarter final seems to be a little bit too short for my liking. I’d rather take a smaller stake on a player such as Khachanov, but the player that looks most appealing to me at the current prices is actually Rublev. For all his faults, Rublev has made his way into the second week of grand slams in relatively consistent fashion, and I am not sure he should be 4x the price to win of Sinner, and longer than De Minaur as well. The form of De Minaur coming in has been exceptional, but the market has certainly found him here at his home grand slam. I’d love to see him in the semi finals, though the price isn’t right to get involved there. Seb Kordaregained some form late in 2023, but looks a little short in the market.
To summarise, the main play in this quarter is Rublev, with a smaller play on Khachanov.
Also Backing:
0.2 units Khachanov to win quarter 2 at $17 at Ladbrokes
Rublev to win quarter 2
$8.50 (0.4 Units)
ATP – Quarter 3
We have another short favourite in this one with Daniil Medvedev at the top of the market, followed by Holger Rune. Both players showed that their best tennis can match it with anyone on tour in the last 12 months, but form and fitness issues have plagued both at times. For Medvedev, he has all the talent in the world, yet if you are going to financially invest in him, you are going to go on a wild rollercoaster of emotions. For me, I think I’d be more interested in the outright price on Medvedev rather than the quarter winner. Rune’s price looks about right, as his early draw is decent and he will be a tough out if the weather conditions remain cool (nearly defeated Rublev last year here while cramping in the 5th set tiebreak). The form player in this section is arguably Grigor Dimitrov, but again he looks to be a player that the market has found off the back of his Paris final and Brisbane title in his past two tournaments. I think I prefer the possibility of trading the outright price on him at Betfair. Of the rest, Hubert Hurkacz is the most likely to feature deep into week two.
TIP: No Bet – 2 x small outright selections below instead
ATP - Quarter 4
This quarter has the potential to be a bit of fun in my opinion. We have Carlos Alcaraz at the top of the quarter betting markets, and justifiably so. We didn’t see Alcaraz in Australia last year due to injury, so it will be fascinating to see how he handles the conditions, as he has developed his game significantly in the last 24 months. His biggest threat here is Alexander Zverev, and the German has looked the best he has since returning from that nasty ankle injury. Although he lost a tight one to Alex De Minaur in the United Cup, his tennis in the back end of 2023 and to start 2024 has been solid. Casper Ruud looks a little more self-assured to start the 2024 season as well, coming off some pretty impressive United Cup tennis, but I fear he may be outmatched on the hardcourt against the likes of Alcaraz, Ruud, and even Jack Draper and potentially Tommy Paul, who went on a big run here last year.
As weird as this sounds, I like the odds for Zverev, however I do genuinely feel as though Dominik Koepfer may give him a run for his money in round 1. I will likely add him if he looks strong in the first round.
There is a fair bit of depth in this section, as the likes of Alexander Bublik, Cameron Norrie, Jiri Lehecka and even Sonego/Evans/Struff can cause some grief on their day.
TIP: No Bet – will look to bet Zverev after Rd 1 match when markets re-open
Summary
So there are a couple of quarter bets locked in above – let’s look at the outright market. I am happy to keep Novak safe here, and will be likely backing him at some stage in the outright market on Betfair if there is a slight drift around a potential injury concern (or falling down a set). I am not looking for a big win on Novak, but more to minimise losses were he to be victorious.
My small selections at Betfair will be Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, and Andrey Rublev. I may look to add to these as the tournament progresses, so keep an eye on Before You Bet for more info.
Please Note: I have previously previewed and backed Alcaraz and Zverev in the outright market in early December, at odds very similar to what are currently listed.
Also Backing:
0.15 units Grigor Dimitrov to win outright at $44 at Betfair
0.25 units Andrey Rublev to win outright at $70 at Betfair
Medvedev to win outright
$12 (0.3 Units)
