It’s advantage Australia after an enthralling 4th Test, as Australia took a 2-1 series lead. The Border Gavaskar Trophy is on the line with a win or a draw seeing Australia win the trophy for the first time in ten years. It’s going to be a thrilling decider, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his preview below!
Australia vs India: 4th Test Preview & Betting Tips
SCG, Friday 3rd January, 10:30am AEDT
Australia
Predicted XI: Sam Konstas, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Beau Webster, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland
Australia head to Sydney with two concerns around their side that could lead to changes to the eleven for the final match of the series. Mitchell Starc is in serious doubt with a suspected side injury which could lead to Jhye Richardson playing his first Test since 2021. The other position of concern is Mitch Marsh at number six, who had another poor showing in Melbourne, with his place looking untenable. Marsh has scores of 9, 5, 2, 4 and 0 from his last five innings, and has 73 runs this series at an average of 10.4. Beau Webster is a ready-made replacement, however given that established players have rarely been dropped in the Cummins era, it wouldn’t be surprising if they stick with him for the final Test.
Australia were absolutely brilliant in the Boxing Day Test, carrying on the momentum they have had since the second game of the series. Debutant Sam Konstas lit up the opening session with a memorable 60 off 65, while Steve Smith anchored the innings with a brilliant 140. Marnus Labuschagne (72), Usman Khawaja (57) and Pat Cummins (49) helped Australia get to 474 to put themselves in the box seat. The second innings didn’t go to plan like the first, however Marnus Labuschagne (70) was rock solid scoring his second half century of the match, while Pat Cummins (41) and Nathan Lyon (41) provided crucial lower order runs. Lyon put on 67 for the final wicket with Scott Boland to set the tourists 340 for victory.
After being unable to clean up the Indian tail in the first innings, there were concerns for the Australians when India got to tea only three wickets down on Day 5. However, the Aussies turned it on after tea, taking 7/34 from the final 28.3 overs of the match saw the hosts storm home to one of the most famous wins in the modern era of Test cricket. Scott Boland (3/57) and Nathan Lyon (3/96) did the damage late, after Pat Cummins (3/89) took the early wickets of Rohit and KL Rahul, before taking the match defining wicket of Yashasvi Jaiswal.
India
Predicted XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant, Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Washington Sundar, Akash Deep, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj
India have backed themselves into a corner with some of their selections from the last Test, do they have the courage to make brave selections that could help them retain the series? Shubman Gill was shockingly dropped in order to allow captain Rohit Sharma to open the batting, which backfired as Rohit continued his struggles with scores of 3 and 9. The Indian skipper has 31 runs at an average of 6.10 this series, with only one score from his five innings reaching double figures. Rohit’s move had further implications, pushing KL Rahul down to three, after he was India’s leading run scorer through the first three Tests. Rahul failed in both innings, scoring 24 and 0.
There will have been plenty of soul searching in the Indian camp after the 4th Test, after failing to hold on in the final innings of the match. The visitors were set 340 for victory, but they never really attempted to push for the win, which got them into a hole as they were just trying to survive. Yashasvi Jaiswal backed up his first innings 82, with 84 in the second innings as the young gun bounced back from a couple of lean innings post the first Test. Nitish Kumar Reddy continues to show his talents, scoring his maiden Test century in the first innings. Reddy has 294 runs at an average of 49 this series, and is India’s second highest run scorer.
Unsurprisingly it was once again Jasprit Bumrah who carried the load with the ball as he continued his historic series. Bumrah took 4/99 in the first innings and backed it up with a breathtaking 5/57 in the second innings, which gave India a chance to win. Mohammed Siraj contributed in the second innings with 3/70, but once again India needed more support for Bumrah.
Match Prediction
An epic series deservedly comes down to the final Test, with a win or a draw giving Australia their first Border Gavaskar series win since 2014. If India win they will retain the trophy, so it’s all on the line at the SCG. As always, weather plays a crucial role in trying to get a result at the SCG, which has proven to be difficult over the last decade. Six of the last 10 Tests at the SCG have finished in a draw, mostly affected by rain. Fortunately for India the forecast looks relatively favourable with only light rain on days one and four, however day five could see up to 15mm of rain.
Conditions aside, Australia has clearly been the better side over the last three Tests. India are reliant on Bumrah with the ball and Jaiswal with the bat, while Australia are getting contributions from across the board. Although there is always plenty of talk about the draws in Sydney, Australia do have a strong record at the venue, winning 13 of the last 14 Tests that didn’t end in a draw. With rain unlikely to be a major factor, expect Australia to finish the series and regain the Border Gavaskar Trophy.
Australia to Win
$1.78 (1 Unit)
Prop Bet
Marnus Labuschagne has found form and returns to his most prolific venue in Test cricket. Labuschagne had scored 815 runs at an average of 81.56 at the SCG, and has scored six half centuries in his last eight innings at the SCG. Labuschagne produced scores of 91 and 73 in his last Test against India in Sydney and will be looking to continue his form after 50’s in each innings of the Boxing Day Test.
Marnus Labuschagne: Top Australian Run Scorer – 1st Innings
$4.00
