With the series tied at 1-1 and a sold-out crowd on day one for the first time in a non-Ashes Test, the 2024 Boxing Day Test is set to be the biggest ever. A win in either of the final two Tests will see India retain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, so it is all on the line for Australia. Jack Tobin analyses the matchup and provides his best bets below!
Australia vs India: 4th Test Preview & Betting Tips
MCG, Thursday 26th December, 10:30am AEDT
Australia
Predicted XI: Sam Konstas, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Mitch Marsh, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Scott Boland
Australia were forced into a change after Josh Hazlewood’s series ending calf injury on Day 4 of the third Test, with hometown hero Scott Boland set to play on the MCG where he has dominated at both shield and Test levels. The big shock leading into this week was the dropping of Nathan McSweeney, with 19-year-old Sam Konstas set to earn a Test debut on the biggest day on the cricket calendar.
Australia continued on their brilliant form from Adelaide, dominating India for the majority of the match, with only the weather preventing them from taking a 2-1 series lead. Travis Head continued his hot series with a scintillating 152 from just 160 deliveries, combining in a 241 run partnership with Steve Smith (101), who ended an 18 month drought without a century. Alex Carey continued the momentum with 70 off 88 balls, which allowed Australia to pile on a big first innings total of 4/45.
Australia’s bowlers got to work over India’s top order once again as India slumped to 5/74 with Starc, Cummins and Hazlewood wreaking havoc. Hazlewood’s injury and the weather didn’t give Australia a chance of winning the game, but they still knocked over India for 260 in the first innings, giving themselves a massive lead. Cummins (4/81) and Starc (3/83) bowled bravely in tough conditions after Hazlewood went down.
India
Predicted XI: Yashasvi Jaiswal, KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Rishabh Pant, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Ravindra Jadeja, Akash Deep, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj
Given Ravichandran Ashwin’s sudden retirement, it’s unlikely that India makes any changes heading into the fourth Test. Ravindra Jadeja was poor with the ball in Brisbane with figures of 0/95, however his batting will be crucial given the struggles of India’s top order over the past two Tests.
It was once again a tale of Bumrah or bust for India, with the superstar taking a brilliant 6/76 in the first innings of the third Test, yet Australia still compiled 445. Mohammed Siraj went at an economy rate of 4.16 in the first innings and failed to dismiss a batsman inside of the top seven. Akash Deep showed some positive signs in the second innings when Australia were trying to slog every delivery, but he was not effective whatsoever in the first innings. India needs contributions from Siraj and Deep if they are going to win this series.
KL Rahul was once again excellent with the bat, as the experienced campaigner produced a well made 84 whilst his teammates fell cheaply around him in the first innings. Rahul is the only Indian in the top six who has made a half century since the first Test, in what is beginning to become a major concern for the tourists. Across their last three completed innings, India have fallen to 5/87, 5/105 and 5/74. Captain Rohit Sharma has scored just 19 runs at an average of 6.33 in three innings, and simply has to lift for his side.
Match Prediction
There was plenty of spin about who came out of the third Test with the momentum, however you only need to look at India’s celebrations after barely avoiding the follow on to tell who was the better side. Australia have been excellent since the second Test as their even spread across the bowling attack continues to expose India’s out of form top order.
Australia haven’t quite figured out how to nullify Bumrah, but they’ve clearly figured out how to take advantage of the rest of the Indian attack so if the top three can take time out of the game, the Australian middle and lower will be able to produce what they have done over the last two games. Travis Head and Alex Carey have been brilliant throughout the series, while Steve Smith played with the grit in Brisbane that he had displayed during his finest years. Australia’s batsmen are committed to their gameplan, and are playing selflessly for each other.
Australia will have the MCG specialist in their bowling attack ready to give even more grief to a side he has an excellent record against. The balance in the relentless Australian bowling attack compared to India’s one man show, has been the key factor in how the series has turned since the opening Test. Some bizarre off field behaviour from the Indian players and support staff shows another indicator of the pressure and desperation they are under. Australia will continue their excellent form and take the lead heading into the series decider.
Australia to Win
$1.57 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bet
Although Hazlewood’s injury is a big blow, Australia have a ready-made replacement in the wings, who will give India plenty of issues across the Test. Scott Boland made a name for himself by taking a remarkable 6/7 on debut at the MCG against England three years ago, after dominating for Victoria for over a decade at the same venue. Seven of Boland’s eleven Tests have been in Australia, where he has taken 33 wickets at an average of 13.55.
Boland is no stranger to taking wickets against India in Test cricket, with his last four innings against India producing returns of 2/59, 3/46, 2/54 and 3/51. The latter two were from the second Test in Adelaide where he claimed the scalps of Virat Kohli, Shubman Gill, Yashasvi Jaiswal and Rohit Sharma. Boland will be perfectly suited to the conditions that will be presented at his home ground and is set for another big contribution for his country.
Scott Boland: Australian Top Bowler – 1st Innings
$4.00
