Another Grand Slam is upon us, and the tables have turned with the women’s draw now dominated by one player, and the men’s draw seemingly far wider open than we have seen in recent memory. Ace is here to take a look at the quarters of each draw and search for value in the futures markets that are around the traps.
2024 French Open Outright Betting Tips
Men’s Draw
Quarter 1
The world number 1 Novak Djokovic is at the top of the market, and headed to Geneva in the week leading up to the tournament to try and gain some form heading into Paris. He has been able to achieve that, and I do feel as though he is the type of player who will build his way into the fortnight. There are a couple of players who can challenge him in flashes in his quarter, however it’s hard to make a strong case for anyone else on the quarter over best of 5 sets than perhaps Casper Ruud. Ruud has made great strides in his game overall this year and is more aggressive, notably on the forehand, and commands a little more respect in the market. The concern for me is the fact he is still in Geneva at the time of writing. Of the rest, the players who have the highest ceiling with their performances include Gael Monfils, Lorenzo Musetti, Francisco Cerundolo, Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. A player like Tomas Etcheverry could surprise, however at the odds over the best-of-5 set format, it’s hard to make a strong case outside of Djokovic and Ruud.
Quarter 2
What a massive first round encounter we have at the top of this quarter, as 4th seed Alexander Zverev is set to face Rafael Nadal in the first round. As much as I love Nadal, and his tennis over the course of his career at Roland Garros certainly speaks for itself, it is hard to be too excited by his odds here given how he has looked physically over the course of the 2024 season. I don’t feel best-of-5 sets is his friend at the moment. Zverev looked fantastic in Rome, and assuming he can get past Nadal in round 1, he has a relatively favourable draw moving forward in the first week. His path to the quarter finals will likely include a 4th round against Khachanov/Rune, and then a quarter final against Daniil Medvedev at worst. I really like Zverev’s chances through this portion of the draw over the best-of-5 format. Others to perhaps keep an eye on include Jan-Lennard Struff and even Flavio Cobolli, who will be a tough round 2 test for Rune.
Quarter 3
I was originally keen on Stefanos Tsitsipas in some capacity for this tournament, however I was disappointed when it became apparent that he would fall outside the Top 8 seedings and find himself in some earlier danger for the tournament. I am not as concerned now, however, as the Top 8 seeds in his section are Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz, who is returning from injury and holds some question marks in my opinion. Like Zverev, Tsitsipas has a tricky round 1 match (vs Fucsovics), however his pocket of the draw looks pretty solid for him overall. One of the first round match-ups I am keen to watch is Matteo Arnaldi vs Arthur Fils, with the winner potentially making a run to the second week if they can frustrate Rublev in a potential 3rd round match. Much like the first quarter, there are players who are capable on their day of challenging most on tour, such as Seb Korda, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Ben Shelton, however it’s hard to make a case for them in the future market.
Quarter 4
The Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner headlines the final quarter as the 2nd overall seed, but like a number of the top players, is coming in here under injury question marks. I could write about Sinner all day, however when it is all said and done, his performance will come down to his overall fitness. On overall form and general grand slam pedigree, the other players here that stand out are Hubert Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov, and Alejandro Tabilo. Of those players, I can entertain a small play on Hurkacz to win the quarter, and perhaps a 0.1 unit shot on Denis Shapovalov as well. I was able to see him up close in practice and play at Geneva last week and it is the best I have seen him look physically, and his game appears to be evolving back to a level closer to his career best (albeit it with quite a brain snap early in the last set against Griekspoor). I’d love to write about Nicolas Jarry here, however I have a love-hate relationship with his first round opponent Corentin Moutet, so I might hold off on my judgement there for now. If Jarry progresses through round 1, I may look to add a small play on Jarry.
Summary
It is certainly a wide open affair, with each player $4 or longer in the betting. With concerns around Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner in different aspects, I will start the tournament by making some smaller plays on the next two players in the market. While Alexander Zverev does have a tough draw early, I do think he has all the tools here to be a major threat in his spot in the draw. Stefanos Tsitsipas is another who I prefer over the best of 5 set format, and can challenge the players at the top of the draw if necessary. I will split small stakes across these two players to reach the quarter finals and tournament, and a small play on Tsitsipas to win his quarter as well.
They are both heavy favourites in round 1, although playing solid opposition, so I guess I will find out in a couple of days if they’ll make me look silly with a first round exit. I am going to hold fire on Casper Ruud for now, as I would rather he be in Paris instead of Geneva, where he is due to play his semi final and final on Saturday if he were to win.
Just the two small plays in the 4th quarter on Hurkacz and Shapovalov, and that will do pre-tournament. There may be some additions once play begins for the tournament, so stay tuned!
Suggested Bets
Alexander Zverev:
- To reach the quarter finals – (0.7 units at $2.20 at Topsport)
- To win tournament – (0.3 units recorded at $9 at Betfair)
Stefanos Tsitsipas:
- To reach the quarter finals – (0.5 units recorded at $2.80 at Topsport)
- To win quarter 3 – (0.3 units recorded at $4.50 at Topsport)
- To win tournament – (0.2 units recorded at $11 at Betfair)
Hubert Hurkacz:
- To win quarter 4 (0.1 unit recorded at $10 at Topsport)
Denis Shapovalov:
- To win quarter 4 (0.1 unit recorded at $34 at Topsport)
Women’s Draw
Quarter 1
When I look at draws for Iga Swiatek, I look at how many major ball strikers are near her. It isn’t as much of an issue on the clay, and I do feel she is going to be incredibly difficult to beat in this tournament given her form. Of the rest of the quarter it’s hard to find a name that you look at with confidence with respect to upsetting Swiatek. Naomi Osaka on clay isn’t as threatening, and unless Barbora Krejcikova can turn back the clock in a big way, I’d be surprised if Swiatek wasn’t progressing out of this quarter.
Quarter 2
The top seed in this section is Coco Gauff, however it’s hard to back her with confidence given the rollercoaster of form on the clay. Her serve can still be a little wayward at times, and it is hard to look at her price and get too excited. Looking elsewhere, it may set up well for the winner of Samsonova/Linette, or even Jelena Ostapenko, who has a very friendly draw here as one of the few players capable of taking the racquet out of her opponent’s hands, and is a former champion here. Hard to make a strong case for a number of players in this section, so I will likely settle just for a small play on Ostapenko given her ceiling.
Quarter 3
If all is well with the health of Elena Rybakina, then this looks to be a massive opportunity for another deep run at the tournament. Scrolling through the rest of the names in this section and I am not seeing myself getting too excited about their prospects. You could maybe make a case for Jasmine Paolini or Elina Svitolina, however I would rather focus my attention elsewhere.
Quarter 4
Players in this section will breathe a sigh of relief, as they are as far away from Iga Swiatek in the draw as possible. The big name in this section is Aryna Sabalenka, the player who has been the last hurdle for Swiatek in Madrid and Rome. She is surrounded in the draw by a couple of players that can challenge her with a level near their best, including Badosa/Stephens/Putintseva as potential 3rd round match-ups, Keys/Navarro and even Schmiedlova as potential 4thround matches, and Sakkari/Noskova/Azarenka/M Andreeva/Kasatkina as potential quarter final opponents. To me, this looks to be the toughest spot in the draw for a top seed, and looking at the players here, their proximity to Sabalenka, and their ability to challenge Sabalenka, the player that stands out to me is Paula Badosa.
Summary
Happy to just make the plays on three players here: Iga Swiatek to win the tournament, Jelena Ostapenko to win the 2nd quarter (and small outright), and Paula Badosa to win the 4th quarter (and to reach the final)
Suggested Bets
Iga Swiatek:
- To win tournament (1 unit recorded at $1.70 at Betfair)
Jelena Ostapenko:
- To win 2nd quarter (0.3 units recorded at $6 at Topsport)
- To win tournament (0.1 units recorded at $51 at Topsport)
Paula Badosa:
- To win 4th quarter (0.2 units recorded at $17 at Topsport)
- To reach final (0.1 units recorded at $126 at Topsport)
