An exciting 2024 AFL season is now within arm's reach of the finals as a few teams are starting to feel the pinch. It looks like the Suns and Bombers are gone, while Collingwood got a win and will need everything to go right to make it. The Hawks are on the cusp of the top 8 after another great win, while the Dogs upset the Swans to sneak into 8th. The Lions are now 2nd on the ladder and into joint premiership favourites with the Swans as it looks like they'll be able to grab the double chance and a home final!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 20 Overview
Nick Daicos was the stand out performer in Round 20 action as he closes the gap on Patrick Cripps at the top of our Brownlow leaderboard. Lachie Neale, Caleb Serong, Adam Treloar and Tom Green all polled votes in Round 20 and are still a chance to take home the Medal. Green polled for possibly his 7th match in a row, and has been quietly flying under the radar this season!
Check out our 2024 Round 20 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 20 Match Analysis
Carlton 9.11.65 def by Port Adelaide 11.13.79
The Power ran over the top of the Blues in the second half to land a big victory that sets them up for a run at September action. Ollie Wines (26 disposals, 9 tackles, 10 clearances) was influential in the middle, while Jason Horne-Francis (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) was clutch in the final quarter to get his side over the line. Mitch Georgiades (3 goals, 12 disposals) provided Port with a good target, while Willem Drew (22 disposals, 12 tackles) did a good job going head-to-head with Patrick Cripps (25 disposals, 9 clearances). Charlie Curnow (3 goals, 19 disposals, 9 marks) was best in the first half but Aliir Aliir (13 disposals, 8 marks) fought back well in the last quarter.
Ollie Wines - 3
Jason Horne-Francis - 2
Charlie Curnow - 0.5
Willem Drew - 0.5
North Melbourne 10.6.66 def by Geelong 16.10.106
The Roos let themselves down with the Cats picking off interception after interception to grind out a solid win. Tom Stewart floated across half-back with ease as he amassed 32 disposals and 9 marks to be best for the Cats. Jeremy Cameron (19 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) drifted up to the wing and was influential, while Ollie Henry (18 disposals, 2 goals) and Tyson Stengle (11 disposals, 3 goals) were lively up forward. The Roos won in the middle of the ground led by Tristan Xerri (25 disposals, 8 tackles, 53 hitouts) and Harry Sheezel (36 disposals, 9 clearances, 14 score involvements, 1 goal), while Tom Powell (33 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles) enjoyed being back to half-back.
Tom Stewart - 3
Harry Sheezel - 2
Tristan Xerri - 1
Gold Coast 9.11.65 def by Brisbane 13.15.93
The Lions continued their winning streak to break the Suns’ run of success at home. Dayne Zorko won the Medal for best on ground for his 32 disposals and 12 marks as he controlled everything with a cool head from the back half. Lachie Neale (35 disposals, 7 marks, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Josh Dunkley (31 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were also magnificent in the middle, while Cam Rayner (25 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) continued his excellent recent form. Sam Flanders (33 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was best for Gold Coast.
Dayne Zorko - 3
Lachie Neale - 2
Josh Dunkley - 0.5
Cam Rayner - 0.5
St Kilda 17.6.108 def Essendon 8.7.55
Essendon are in freefall as they just didn’t turn up at all against the Saints who had winners all over the ground. Rowan Marshall led the way with 27 disposals, 10 marks, 30 hitouts, 8 clearances and a goal in a huge game. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (31 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal), Jack Sinclair (28 disposals, 9 marks) and Jack Steele (21 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) were busy, while Cooper Sharman (20 disposals, 10 marks, 3 goals) and Anthony Caminiti (15 disposals, 8 marks, 3 goals) were flying up forward.
Rowan Marshall - 3
Cooper Sharman - 2
Jack Steele - 1
Melbourne 12.11.83 def by GWS Giants 13.7.85
The Giants escaped from the MCG with the points in an exciting finish against the Dees who led early and stormed late, but lost their way in between. Tom Green (33 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) was huge again, and potentially polling Brownlow votes for his 7th match in a row. Finn Callaghan (36 disposals, 6 marks), Lachie Whitfield (35 disposals, 6 marks) and James Peatling (28 disposals, 11 tackles, 8 clearances) all won plenty of ball, while Toby Greene (16 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) was dangerous up forward. Clayton Oliver had a team-high 26 disposals and 6 clearances for the Dees.
Tom Green - 2.5
Finn Callaghan - 2.5
James Peatling - 0.5
Toby Greene - 0.5
Fremantle 17.8.110 def West Coast 11.9.75
West Coast led but Freo got going in the second half to get the win in a spirited Derby. Caleb Serong won the Medal for best afield for his 32 disposals, 10 clearances and a goal. Andrew Brayshaw (36 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) wasn’t far behind, with Hayden Young (20 disposals, 12 tackles, 8 clearances) and Jaegar O’Meara (20 disposals, 2 goals) also important. Harley Reid (29 disposals, 10 clearances) and Tim Kelly (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were best for the Eagles.
Caleb Serong - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 2
Harley Reid - 0.5
Hayden Young - 0.5
Collingwood 14.9.93 def Richmond 9.13.67
The Pies are back on the winner’s list as they accounted for Richmond. Nick Daicos was back to his sublime best with 42 disposals, including 18 in the first term, 12 score involvements, and 11 clearances. Josh Daicos (32 disposals, 6 marks) was also very good while Darcy Cameron (18 disposals, 33 hitouts, 1 goal) was dominant in the ruck. Nathan Broad (27 disposals, 15 marks) and Nick Vlastuin (23 disposals, 12 marks) were kept busy for the Tigers.
Nick Daicos - 3
Josh Daicos - 2
Darcy Cameron - 1
Sydney 7.6.48 def by Western Bulldogs 12.15.87
The Dogs are barking as they stunned the Swans to climb into the top 8 and announce themselves as a premiership contender. Adam Treloar (40 disposals) and Ed Richards (25 disposals, 1 goal) were busy in the middle, while Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (13 disposals, 4 goals) and Aaron Naughton (18 disposals, 10 marks) were a handful up forward. Matt Roberts (36 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) played his best game for the Swans, while Errol Gulden (27 disposals, 1 goal) and Isaac Heeney (32 disposals, 6 marks) played their part.
Adam Treloar - 3
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - 2
Matt Roberts - 1
Adelaide 8.10.58 def by Hawthorn 19.10.124
The Hawks continue to charge with a big win over the Crows, and are only percentage outside the top 8 after starting the season 0-5. The Hawks had winners all over the ground but Connor Macdonald (28 disposals, 14 score involvements, 2 goals), Will Day (20 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Jai Newcombe (22 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goal) and Dylan Moore (21 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) were standouts. Jake Soligo (30 disposals, 11 clearances), Lachie Sholl (29 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles) and Rory Laird (29 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances) tried hard for the Crows.
Connor Macdonald - 3
Will Day - 2
Jai Newcombe - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
