Another exciting round is in the books with the Blues looking as the main contender to the Swans for the 2024 AFL Premiership. The Blues thumped the Tigers to open up a gap in second spot on the ladder, and eventhough the Swans suffered their second loss of the season, they remain clear on top of the ladder. Thte Dockers caused the upset as they moved into third spot with the AFL ladder a log-jam between 3rd and 13th with the Hawks still a chance to somehow make finals this season!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 16 Overview
A really interesting round for our Brownlow Leaderboard with Nick Daicos, Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps all likely to poll very well, while Isaac Heeney was well held. It seems that Heeney has now lost his lead with Daicos and Cripps moving into Brownlow favouritism. Other potential contenders in the votes in Round 16 include Noah Anderson, Caleb Serong, Tom Green and Sam Walsh.
Check out our 2024 Round 16 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 16 Match Analysis
Brisbane 11.20.86 def Melbourne 11.15.81
A surprisingly good game to start Round 16! Brisbane were big favourites, but trailed Melbourne for most of the match before storming home to pinch it in the final moments. Josh Dunkley was relentless with 32 disposals, 12 marks, 10 tackles and 7 clearances. Dayne Zorko (28 disposals, 9 marks), Lachie Neale (29 disposals, 9 marks, 6 clearances) and Hugh McLuggage (28 disposals, 1 goal) were all important in the clutch moments. Kysaiah Pickett (5 goals, 12 disposals, 6 tackles) was fantastic for Melbourne while Jack Viney (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances) was tireless.
Josh Dunkley - 3
Kysaiah Pickett - 2
Hugh McLuggage - 0.5
Lachie Neale - 0.5
North Melbourne 9.6.60 def by Western Bulldogs 11.11.77
Once again North did a lot right, but ultimately didn’t get the win against the Dogs. There was talk all week of Marcus Bontempelli being injured and potentially missing this game, but the Bont was superb with 35 disposals, 6 marks and 11 clearances. Tom Liberatore (25 disposals, 1 goal) was tough all game, while Rory Lobb (16 disposals, 8 marks) and Liam Jones (17 disposals, 10 marks) were instrumental down back. Tristan Xerri (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 34 hitouts, 1 goal) was a force in the ruck, while Darcy Tucker (30 disposals, 7 marks) and Harry Sheezel (27 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) won plenty of the ball.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Tom Liberatore - 2
Tristan Xerri - 0.5
Rory Lobb - 0.5
Sydney 14.14.98 def by Fremantle 15.9.99
One of the upsets of the season as the Swans suffered just their second loss of the season, and Freo announced themselves as a genuine contender. Caleb Serong (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) set the tone early, Andrew Brayshaw (24 disposals) was useful, while Nat Fyfe (22 disposals, 8 clearances) did a good job keeping Brownlow favourite Isaac Heeney relatively quiet. Nick Blakey (32 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) was a stand out for the Swans, while Hayden McLean (14 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) provided a target.
Nick Blakey - 3
Caleb Serong - 2
Nat Fyfe - 1
Gold Coast 14.17.101 def Collingwood 13.12.90
A great win for the Suns at home as they halted the run of the Pies. Noah Anderson was everywhere with 39 disposals and 8 marks. Touk Miller (31 disposals), Ben Ainsworth (28 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) and Sam Flanders (33 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) also won plenty of ball. Nick Daicos stood tall for the Pies and should be in the votes for his 32 disposals and 2 goals. Jordan De Goey (21 disposals, 2 goals) was also good in his return to the side.
Noah Anderson - 3
Nick Daicos - 2
Sam Flanders - 1
Geelong 16.9.105 def Essendon 9.6.60
It was a wet night at the G and that suited the Cats who had a bit too much grunt for the Bombers. There were plenty of even contributions from the Cats with Jack Bowes (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Oli Dempsey (25 disposals, 2 goals), Max Holmes (23 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) and Patrick Dangerfield (22 disposals, 6 tackles) among their best. Jye Caldwell (32 disposals, 12 tackles, 12 clearances) was a stand out for the Bombers.
Oli Dempsey - 3
Jye Caldwell - 2
Jack Bowes - 0.5
Max Holmes - 0.5
Adelaide 13.16.94 def GWS Giants 12.6.78
The Crows landed a strong win as the slide of the Giants continued. Izak Rankine was huge in the first half and ended with 27 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances and 2 goals to be a clear best on ground. Mitch Hinge (31 disposals, 8 marks), Jordan Dawson (24 disposals, 10 marks) and Ben Keays (21 disposals, 8 tackles, 2 goals) were also good for the Crows. The Giants found plenty of ball with Lachie Whitfield (41 disposals, 12 marks), Tom Green (38 disposals), Callan Ward (24 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) and Josh Kelly (24 disposals, 2 goals) all a chance for votes.
Izak Rankine - 3
Mitch Hinge - 1
Lachie Whitfield - 1
Tom Green - 1
St Kilda 8.12.60 def by Port Adelaide 8.14.92
One of the worst games of the year to watch, but Port were very relieved to come home with the points. In a scrappy game, Jason Horne-Francis (28 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) was a stand out with his speed and run. Connor Rozee (25 disposals, 7 marks) had good moments, while Kane Farrell (25 disposals, 6 marks) patrolled the back half. Jack Sinclair (31 disposals, 10 marks) was best for the Saints while Rowan Marshall (18 disposals, 9 marks, 10 hitouts, 3 goals) looked threatening when he shifted forward. The sooner we can forget this game the better.
Jason Horne-Francis - 3
Jack Sinclair - 2
Rowan Marshall - 1
Richmond 10.10.70 def by Carlton 20.11.131
After a tight first half, the Blues turned it on in the third to run away with a big win. Patrick Cripps is gaining momentum towards his second Brownlow Medal after he amassed 40 disposals, 14 clearances and a goal to be best afield. Sam Walsh (26 disposals, 10 tackles, 2 goals), Nic Newman (28 disposals, 14 marks) and Blake Acres (33 disposals) were also very good, while Orazio Fantasia (4 goals, 13 disposals) played his best game for the Blues. Daniel Rioli (24 disposals, 7 marks) and Tim Taranto (27 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) were valuable for the Tigers.
Patrick Cripps - 3
Sam Walsh - 2
Nic Newman - 1
West Coast 4.9.33 def by Hawthorn 14.10.94
A shocking effort from the Eagles as the Hawks continued their amazing climb up the ladder throughout the season. James Worpel (28 disposals, 11 clearances) and Jai Newcombe (33 disposals) dominated in the middle, with Dylan Moore (29 disposals, 12 marks, 2 goals), Connor Macdonald (21 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) and Jack Ginnivan (21 disposals, 2 goals) all lively up forward. Liam Duggan (28 disposals, 14 marks) didn’t get much help from his Eagles teammates.
James Worpel - 3
Jai Newcombe - 2
Dylan Moore - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
