The 2023 tennis clay court season is now in full swing, and this week the ATP and WTA Tours will head to Madrid for the Madrid Open. 1000 ranking points are up for grabs on both the men’s and women’s draw, which mean a lot of the big names will be in action.
Tennis expert, Ace, brings you his thoughts and betting strategy for the tournament below!
2023 Madrid Open Futures Betting Tips
ATP Madrid
Another week and another heavy favourite in the key ATP tournament. With a number of the top names missing from the Madrid field, Carlos Alcaraz stands above the rest of the field, and there is some distance. The altitude of Madrid does mean that some players with the bigger serves are able to utilise them a little more in the conditions, as we have seen with past winner Alexander Zverev.
I am not overly keen to heavily involve myself in Alcaraz in the outright market south of $2, but there is a bit of value in the 2nd quarter market, as well as some each-way selections from the bottom half.
Looking at the second quarter, it does look quite even on paper, with $4 the shortest price and that is allocated to Holger Rune. Rune has put together some very impressive tennis over the last couple of weeks, and sits in the second tier of players when it comes to Roland Garros chances. I do wonder if the volume of recent tennis and the altitude tennis here may catch up with him a touch. I am not sure the current form of Casper Ruudquite matches his odds as second favourite in the quarter, which brings me to the next three names. I think you could make a case for each of Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, however at the odds, and given I think Rune may be most vulnerable earlier in the week, I think the Spaniard Davidovich-Fokina is a really interesting price here. I will also make a small nibble on him in the outrights, as the likes of Zverev and Rublev could threaten Alcaraz in these conditions.
Rolling through the third quarter and it’s hard to look past Stefanos Tsitsipas at the top of the market. He should be a very strong favourite in each of his matches, and I am not sure any player in this section is producing a level of tennis that is going to cause Tsitsipas genuine concern here if he can bring a level that is somewhat near his best.
I am going to hold fire on the 4th quarter for now. There are a couple of names a little further down the odds list that appeal, however I would like to catch them in their first matches first, with odds unlikely to drastically change with the top players all having a first round bye.
For now, it’s ADF in the second quarter and outright, and Tsitsipas to win the quarter and each way.
Suggested Bets
0.75 units Tsitsipas to win Quarter 1 - $2.62 at Bet365
0.25 units each way Tsitsipas to win Outright - $11 at Bet365
0.5 units Davidovich-Fokina to win Quarter 2 - $9 at TAB
0.15 units each way Davidovich-Fokina to win Outright - $51 at TAB
WTA Madrid
Some quick thoughts here on the women’s side in Madrid, with Iga Swiatek at the top of the market in a very similar way to Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s draw. I am happy to back her in at the current price of $2, because I do feel there is a significant gap between her level and the next best. She is coming off a short break, and should be primed for a strong showing here.
I really like the early draw for Jessica Pegula this week, and she should be able to build her form and some momentum across the course of the tournament. Her biggest threat to miss reaching the quarter finals is Victoria Azarenka, who I don’t think is going as well as past years and may be a touch vulnerable in this one. I am not as keen on Pegula in the outright markets looking at the prices and the potential semi final opponents, so will just settle for the quarter winner.
In the bottom half, a slightly left field selection for the quarter winner markets is Linda Fruhvritova. She is well and truly up against it with Jelena Ostapenko in her next match, which is a tough test, but if she can challenge Ostapenko, I give her every chance of making a push here.
I will sit out the 4th quarter at the moment, however I am considering making a selection on Marketa Vondrousova.
Suggested Bets
1 unit Iga Swiatek to win Outright - $2 at Bet365
0.5 units Jessica Pegula to win Quarter 2 - $3.60 at Bet365
0.3 units Linda Fruhvirtova to win Quarter 3 - $29 at Bet365
0.1 units each way Linda Fruhvirtova to win Outright - $251 at Bet365
