Queensland Reds winger Suliasi Vunivalu and NSW Waratahs halfback Jake Gordon are two big returns from injury that will help shape results in Round 9 of Super Rugby Pacific.
The four Aussie sides in action will all be desperate for a win because it will be that much harder to find victories beyond this weekend when the matches against the Kiwi sides begin.
Let's take a closer look at Round 9.
Super Rugby Round 9 Betting Tips
Melbourne Rebels v Queensland Reds
Fri, April 15, AAMI Park, Melbourne 7.45pm (AEST)
The Reds are on a five-win streak in matches against the Rebels.
That said, the Rebels have rediscovered their mojo with back-to-back wins after some ordinary rugby to open the season. The 23-5 loss to the Reds in the opening round in the wet was as lame as any this season.
This will be far closer. Injuries and suspensions have hit the Reds’ backrow to the point that lock Connor Vest will start at No.6. He’s a physical player who flies into the breakdown but he lacks the speed to get there first as Rebels rivals like Richard Hardwick, Brad Wilkin and Sam Wallis so often do.
That’s really the key. If Rebels skipper Michael Wells, Hardwick and reserves Wilkin and Wallis can be pests at the breakdown and slow down the quick ball that the Reds thrive on, the Rebels will be in this.
The handbrake is of course how poorly the Rebels are converting the pressure they do mount into tries. They’ve scored just 14 tries in seven matches. It’s hard to see them racking up three or four tries against one of the best defensive units in the competition to score the 25-plus points needed to think of winning this.
The Reds have close to their slickest backline in play with the return of winger Suliasi Vunivalu from a long-term hamstring injury. He scored tries catching kicks last season and the Reds love that Folau-like skill. They’ll cross-kick to him to score tries. You’ll at least get a good run at the TAB.com.au quote of $2.60 for a Vunivalu “Try and Win” for the Reds.
The bookies have set the line too tight at around 8.5 points to see value there. The Rebels will scrap hard but a Reds’ win by 1-12 points at $2.70 with Ladbrokes looks the best value.
Reds H2H/Vunivalu Anytime Try
$2.60
Western Force v NSW Waratahs
Sat, Apr 16, HBF Park, Perth 7.45pm (AEST)
This is a desperate stakes game. The Waratahs have made huge progress after the horrors of 2021.
Win this one to go to 5-3 in the standings and they might just have done enough to finish in the top eight before the tougher run against Kiwi opponents.
The return of organiser and speed man Jake Gordon at halfback is a fresh turbo for their chances.
The Tahs are fielding close to their best team except for the injury absence of flyhalf Ben Donaldson. That’s how important the game is.
The Force have won four of the past five times these sides have met in Perth which is a good stat.
The 2-5 Force pretty much blew it for the season last weekend when they scored three tries-to-one but couldn’t put away the plucky Rebels.
Playing the Waratahs and being in the last chance saloon will hopefully bring out their best. They certainly need to show more than in the lacklustre 22-17 loss to the Waratahs in Sydney in Round 4.
Force winger Manasa Mataele has been a bright spot for the Force this season. It’s not just his four tries but those big gainline carries that get the side rolling forward.
Having pacy Toni Pulu back on the wing means the Force just have to find ways to get their finishers involved and in-field too. That’s in their team patterns so let’s see if it can click.
No Izack Rodda in the pack is a big out for the Force because he’s such a lineout thief and set piece rock.
Some strong carries from centre Izaia Perese are always on the cards. He just has no knack to pass to his wingers and that is the big work-on he must advance to be a regular Wallaby.
The Waratahs look stronger placed than the line at 3.5 points.
