The new Super Rugby Pacific competition is at lift-off. Having the flying Fijians and Moana Pasifika involved is superb for this rugby region in this 12-team format. Jim Tucker will be with us all season previewing all of the Australian games and giving betting tips for rest.
Note: Remember when you are betting to look at whether pay-outs are based on full-time or the final result. Some sites are listing "No Overtime" with Golden Point now in action for this competition.
Super Rugby Pacific Round 1 Betting Tips
NSW Waratahs v Fijian Drua
Fri, Feb 18, CommBank Stadium, Sydney 7.45pm (AEDT)
The season is cooked for the Waratahs if they lose this one. That’s how important this opener is to put last year’s hideous 0-13 season in the rear-vision mirror. New coach Darren Coleman has his team playing direct and physical and with much-improved defence which are three ingredients you need to shut down any Fijian side.
I had to search for this betting option with only narrow rugby betting options on some sites. Sportsbet have set the Waratahs at $2 to make the quarter-finals. Jump on. Here’s the reasoning. The five Kiwi teams make the quarters so that’s three spots left in the expanded top eight for the Aussie sides and two start-up outfits. The Reds, Brumbies and Waratahs could make the quarters and you collect.
The Waratahs run plenty of their plays to the right side, the right wing side of Dylan Pietsch, who is a potential breakout star for the Tahs. He’s an AnyTime Tryscorer deluxe if that market pops up.
The Drua are based in Lennox Head on the NSW north coast for the season. Beating the Melbourne Rebels in a trial was superb but this is a step up to nerves and the big stage. I want the Drua to excel and excite. The Waratahs will too clever here which is not something anyone said about them in 2021.
Queensland Reds v Melbourne Rebels
Sat, Feb 19, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane 7.45pm (AEDT)
The Reds were patchy at best in their two losing trials. The Super Rugby AU champions were 5-0 against Aussie teams at Suncorp Stadium last year and that’s the resonant pointer here. The Reds love the home ground vibe.
They have the depth to come on strong in the second half too with Wallabies Fraser McReight and Hunter Paisami as two big weapons from the bench. The Rebels have popguns from the bench by comparison.
No.8 Harry Wilson has been in excellent pre-season form for the Queenslanders. There’s a lack of punch to the Reds centres (Hamish Stewart and Josh Flook) at first glance but it’s really the well-grooved combination of the entire backline that should be too much for the Rebels. Winger Jordan Petaia is looking super sharp and may even finish the game from fullback. Scheming, sniping halfback Tate McDermott is having his first run of 2022 after a COVID spell.
Young Rebels flyhalf Carter Gordon has great potential. How he operates with experienced Matt Toomua beside him will dictate how smoothly the Melbourne attack flows. No Marika Koroibete. You can’t replace him.
The Rebels just don’t have the belief borne of results like the Reds do.
ACT Brumbies v Western Force
Sun, Feb 20, GIO Stadium, Canberra, 2pm (AEDT)
One thing the Brumbies have always been is prepared for Round One. They will be again for a Sunday arvo game with a side that is a well-grooved duplicate of their 2021 outfit. They’ll be well-rehearsed and if that means two boring rolling maul tries off 5m lineouts they’ll go there.
Centre Len Ikitau, lock Darcy Swain, breakout 2021 star Rob Valetini, a fit-again Tom Banks, a powerful all-Wallabies front-row, slick halves Nic White and Noah Lolesio...there are ticks everywhere.
I really think the Western Force have the makings of a good side and will be in plenty of games in the final 10 minutes this season. There are far more question marks over the Force in terms of cohesion under pressure and that will come from the smother of the Brumbies defence.
What do young backs Reesjan Pasitoa and Bayley Kuenzle do when options seem to have run out? They have to make the right calls for a side with lots of new pieces. The Force were terrific for big periods when they beat the Reds in a trial and reserve halfback Issak Fines-Leleiwasa is one of those spark players. Expect the Force wingers Toni Pulu and Manasa Mataele to be used in plenty of plays off their wings.
This has to be a Brumbies win but it will be closer than the bookies think.
Other Games
