The 2016 Emirates Stakes Day is the final day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington and it should be a cracker with the Darley Classic also set to be run.
Oaks Day was a shocker for most punters and horse racing tipsters around the country so hopefully we can bounce back. The track remains Good and the rail remains out 3m.
It's been a big week but we've got 9 more races to find winners in and we have betting tips for every race!
2016 Emirates Stakes Day Betting Tips
Race 1 - Maribyrnong Plate 1000m
Very hard race to get a gauge on with so many first starters but there's no reason to jump off AZAZEL who was backed heavily and won accordingly on debut. Maps to get a good run midfield from barrier 7 and could be hard to beat again.
WAIT FOR NO ONE is an obvious danger after winning his debut too. ASPECT, CRYSTAL WINGS and RESIN are the first starters I'd be entertaining.
Tip: Azazel
Race 2 - Starlight Children's Foundation Plate 2000m
Three that I rate as the main hopes. The first is the early favourite HIPPARCHUS who I think looks set to peak today based on his last run. He finished runner up last start in Sydney over 2000m, and he stays at 2000m for this, which is his fourth run back from a spell. I think he's ready to win, Bowman takes over and his record at this distance is very strong.
The second is the Hawkes horse at the bottom of the weights, KILMACURRAGH. There is a fairly big spruik on this horse and he resumed from a spell with a comfortable enough win at Pakenham over 1400m. Much better suited at 2000m, and we saw him jump from 1400m to 2000m last prep and he ran a very big race to just miss. Needs a bit of luck going forward from barrier 14 but if the track is favouring front runners he will be hard to catch.
The third looks the best value in the race and that is CURRAGH. He was my best value bet of the day at Flemington on Thursday but was scratched. Jockey said last start that he wants a bigger track so the 2000m at Flemington shoul be ideal.
I'll be backing both Hipparchus ($4.60) and Kilmacurragh ($7.50) with a saver on Curragh ($11).
Tip: Hipparchus / Kilmacurragh
Race 3 - Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m
Looks a two horse race. FRANCIS OF ASSISI won the Bendigo Cup easily and that was first up so if he improves at all he will be hard to beat here. He draws well and will take a seat behind the speed and hopefully rolls over the top of them down the big straight.
TOM MELBOURNE has found his mojo the past two starts and is back to his best form. He was only run down late by the very impressive Oceanographer last start in the Lexus and if he runs up to that he will be tough to run down.
Best value could be VENGEUR MASQUE who ran well in the Caulfield Cup without much luck.
Tip: Francis Of Assisi
Race 4 - Hilton Stakes 1400m
Four horses catch my eye here but one goes on top clearly which is NICCOLANCE for Peter and Paul Snowden. When they bring horses to Melbourne they generally go close - Redzel, Flippant to name a couple this week. This horse has won its past two starts, the latest of which was over the very promising Comin' Through, who won a Gr3 on Derby Day. Needs luck from barrier 15 but looks a red hot chance in this.
VERSTAPPEN has won two of his three starts. He won by 6 lengths on debut, then failed and had 50 days off, and returned with an easy win at Cranbourne. He could go well. INSIDE AGENT is talented and won over this track and distance two starts ago. Had no luck last start and gets Bowman on board today. Looks over the odds at $15, while MAN FROM UNCLE also looks a value chance at $14. Ran 2nd to Invincibella last start who has since come out and run a blinder, and the 3rd horse has come out and won since.
Niccolance clearly on top but the value is Inside Agent and Man From Uncle.
Tip: Niccolance
Race 5 - Antler Luggage Handicap 1600m
Taking a punt on a couple at longer odds here. BOOM TIME was one of my bets on Thursday but was scratched in favour of this. His run first up was good and last prep he should have nearly won 2nd up over 1600m so if he can get a good ride from barrier 13 I think he'll run well here at $9.
COLDSTONE is the other at good odds that could run a big race. He sits at $12 but last start he ran 2nd to a pretty smart horse in Master Reset. That horse beat Rageese (who won a Gr3 on Oaks Day) and then backed that up with a 3 length win at Mornington, where he beat Coldstone. If that form line stacks up and this horse improves again then he looks value. Will need a good ride from barrier 14.
The other couple worth mentioning are former Kiwi MABEEL and Darren Weir's horse LUCKY PADDY, who ran 3rd behind Master Reset last start.
Tip: Boom Time EW / Coldstone EW
Race 6 - 7News Matriarch Stakes 2000m
I'll be backing two in this. Giving another chance to LADY LE FAY who had absolutely no hope on the inside of the track last start at Moonee Valley. Steps up to 2000m, draws well and her previous form sees her hard to beat here at $5.50.
The other is HAPPY HANNAH at $10. She's got a tough gig from barrier 17 but she's crying out for the 2000m and she did run 3rd in a Group 1 over 2000m last prep. Her past couple of runs have been very good over 1600m and she's got the inform McEvoy on board. Snowden runners in Melbourne!
The others worth mentioning are DENMAGIC who ran 3rd in the Myer last start and gets a good draw and good jockey booking, and RISING ROMANCE who looks the best value in the race. She is placed at WFA Group 1 level over this track and distance, she's weighted to win this and she draws to get a great run. $19 is a big price.
Tip: Lady Le Fay / Happy Hannah (best value)
Race 7 - Emirates Stakes 2000m - Group 1
What a cracking race! Found it very hard to split the three at the top of the market.
THE UNITED STATES is flying after a little setback earlier in the prep. He won over 1600m two starts ago at Moonee Valley and last start he flashed home in the Cantala Stakes. He's looking for the 2000m now and if he can get cover from barrier barrier 11 he is a huge chance here.
VADAMOS did plenty wrong in the Cox Plate and battled on really well to finish 4th. If that's taken the edge off him and he settles better here he could give this a real shake. He is a Group 1 winner over 1600m in France so no surprise to see him win here.
SCOTTISH put in a huge performance to run 2nd in the Caulfield Cup after doing a stack of work. Freshened up an drops back to 2000m where he has 3 wins from 4 starts. The draw gives him every chance here.
The value in the race looks to be PALENTINO. I think he genuinely would have gone close to the winner last start in the Cantala but he was poleaxed just as he was building momentum. Flemington is definitely his track, and if he isn't stretched too much by 2000m he could run over the top of all of them. $16 is a big price.
Huge watch on ENDLESS DRAMA. I think I'll be backing The United States here with a saver on Vadamos. Might be risky taking on Scottish, while Palentino's the value.
Tip: The United States
Race 8 - Darley Classic 1200m - Group 1
Very deep race. It seems like everyone is loading up on THE QUARTERBACK which makes it hard to believe that he's $7! That's the way I'm going too because he is absolutely flying this prep. His win first up was quite easy, and his run in the Manikato last start was enormous. He flies down the straight and this looks a very good race for him to crack a Group 1.
I think MALAGUERRA is a good price too at $9. His first up run behind Star Turn was very good, and that form is very strong I think. This is his first try down the straight but he has 3 wins from 5 races at Flemington so I think it shouldn't be a problem.
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see LANKAN RUPPE win this after a good first up run with 61kg after a long time out. Wasn't long ago that he was the best sprinter in the country at this track and distance and if he improves off his first up run he'll go very close.
There's nothing wrong with the way FELL SWOOP is going and he only has to reproduce his form from last start to be very competitive in this. OUR BY MALACHI has some claims after a blistering win in the Caulfield Sprint.
The interesting runner is SPIETH who has now won his last 4 races. This is his biggest test by a long, long way but he should be competitive. SHEIDEL is an each way chance and the others have to improve.
Backing both The Quarterback ($7) and Malaguerra ($9) here in a tough race.
Tip: The Quarterback / Malaguerra
Race 9 - Emirates Airline Handicap 1400m
Keen to back the former HK horse REDKIRK WARRIOR here at the $6.50 available. His first up run behind Sir Bacchus was very good and early on in Hong Kong he looked the real deal. 54.5kg and a good enough draw should see him go close in this.
DEMONSTRATE is obviously the horse to beat backing up after winning on Melbourne Cup day. Drops to 54kg and can certainly win again. LUCKY LIBERTY was scratched from the race Demonstrate won to run in this and he looks to be back to his best.
ULMANN, AKAVAROUN, SANTA ANA LANE all hold claims.
Tip: Redkirk Warrior (best bet)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
