Michael Lee returns with his free esports betting previews for three League of Legends matches on Monday, February 20. Today, he focuses on two LoL Pro League (LPL) fixtures in Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming, and LGD Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up, and a long-awaited LoL EMEA Championship (LEC) 2023 Winter upper bracket final clash between G2 Esports and KOI.
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Esports Betting Tips: Monday, February 20th 2023
Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming
LPL 2023 Spring
ThunderTalk Gaming have won four of seven games this season but enter this game following a rough loss against Oh My God. ThunderTalk did not impress at the end of last week, but they have proven their worth this season with strong performances against Weibo Gaming (2-0), Invictus Gaming (2-1), Ultra Prime (2-1), and LGD Gaming (2-0).
Ninjas in Pyjamas are just 2-5, with wins against LNG Esports (2-1) and Ultra Prime (2-0). And even though beating LNG Esports isn’t a small feat, Ninjas in Pyjamas have also lost against LGD Gaming (0-2), which is quite concerning. Still, that was their only really disappointing defeat, considering that most of their other losses came against the league’s top teams in EDward Gaming (1-2), Top Esports (1-2), and JD Gaming (0-2).
Had Ninjas in Pyjamas won against LGD Gaming, as they should’ve, the betting odds on this match would look much different. They haven’t achieved much this season, but NiP also won maps against Top Esporta and EDward Gaming, which is seriously impressive and shows that while inconsistent, Ninjas in Pyjamas can do damage.
Based on the teams’ performances, it’s fair to say that ThunderTalk are stronger, but I wouldn’t bet on them at 1.53. Ninjas in Pyjamas should be priced much closer to evens for this affair, so I’ll take a chance with them at 2.37.
Ninjas in Pyjamas to win
$2.37 (1 Unit)
LGD Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up
LPL 2023 Spring
LGD Gaming are undeniably one of the weakest teams of the split. They’re 2-5, which isn’t as bad as FunPlus Phoenix (1-6) and Anyone’s Legend (0-7), but that doesn’t change the fact that LGD Gaming’s win rate sits at just 29%. Even their map record (5-11) is hardly convincing, and the worst part is that LGD have yet to play any of the top teams.
Last week, LGD Gaming doubled their total win tally with an upset victory over Ninjas in Pyjamas (2-0), having previously lost three straight against Invictus Gaming (0-2), ThunderTalk (0-2) and Ultra Prime (0-2).
Royal Never Give Up are in a better spot with a 3-4 record, but this is clearly not the same team as last season. Opting to field a much younger roster hasn’t earned RNG many wins early into the year, but that’s ok, and their 3-4 record isn’t as bad as it seems.
RNG’s only three losses this split came against LNG Esports (0-2), JD Gaming (0-2), EDG (0-2) and Invictus Gaming (0-2), which are four of the top five teams in the league. On the other side, RNG have proven to be very good against weaker squads, with strong performances against OMG (2-0), Team WE (2-1), and FPX (2-0).
I like Royal Never Give Up better, but at 1.14, they’re a bit overrated. LGD Gaming have had mostly poor showings this season, but they’ve also proven that they can bite if given a chance and seeing how RNG have lost a map against Team WE, it’s realistic to believe that LGD Gaming can win at least one map. I’ll take LGD Gaming with a map handicap.
LGD Gaming +1.5 maps
$2.10 (1 Unit)
G2 Esports vs KOI
LEC 2023 Winter Playoffs
G2 Esports and KOI will meet in the LEC 2023 Winter upper bracket final, where the two European LoL juggernauts will battle it out for a spot in the big finals. G2 Esports had a fairly easy road through the group stage, beating MAD Lions and Team BDS and even though they lost one map against BDS, I’m not too concerned about that.
Team BDS are a strong team that took advantage of the opportunities given to them in that game. So, map loss doesn’t mean much in the greater scheme of things. G2 Esports are still one of the league’s best teams and, unsurprisingly, 1.61 favourites for this match.
KOI ended the group stage with a perfect 2-0 record and two 2-0 sweeps of SK Gaming and Team Vitality. Beating Vitality looks impressive on paper, but considering how shaky Vitality looked during the group stage, I wouldn’t praise KOI too much for winning.
That doesn’t take away from the fact that KOI are still one of Europe’s top teams and a squad that will prove to be a worthy opponent for G2. These two teams last met in the final week of the regular season, when G2 Esports won convincingly, but the game could’ve ended much differently hadn’t G2 Esport scored an early lead.
G2 and KOI are much closer than what the odds imply, and even though I believe G2 Esports should win, I see this game going to give maps.
Over 4.5 maps
$2.62 (1 Unit)
